Electricity.Trade’s analysis of January 2026 electricity trading shows a clear re-emergence of price divergence across South-East Europe, reversing a convergence trend seen in parts of late 2025. Average monthly prices ranged from €150.51/MWh in Romania and €150.41/MWh in Hungary to €108.67/MWh in Greece and €57.42/MWh in Türkiye. The figures point to continued structurally segmented pricing despite physical interconnection.
Consumption changes do not explain the divergence
The divergence was not demand-led, Electricity.Trade said. Regional consumption rose unevenly, with Serbia reporting +33.43% month-on-month growth, Croatia +22.42%, and Bulgaria +17.51%. Hungary and Romania recorded more modest changes compared with those increases. Electricity.Trade linked price behavior instead to marginal supply conditions, fuel exposure, and import elasticity.
Romania and Hungary set the upper price range
Romania and Hungary jointly defined the upper price envelope in January 2026. Both markets saw declining hydro availability alongside increased gas-linked marginal pricing. Electricity.Trade also reported heightened reliance on imports during peak hours in both systems. Romania’s average January price of €150.51/MWh matched hydro generation falling by -16.04%, while Hungary’s €150.41/MWh coincided with a system holding 34.03% net imports despite strong nuclear output.
Greece and Serbia show hydro-driven insulation
In contrast, Greece did not follow regional price escalation patterns. Electricity.Trade attributed Greece’s lower average price of €108.67/MWh primarily to a +155.37% increase in hydro generation. The additional hydro output temporarily displaced gas at the margin and reduced exposure to TTF volatility. Serbia showed similar insulation, with hydro generation rising by +186.06%, stabilizing prices despite strong demand growth.
Implications for regional market modeling
Electricity.Trade said January’s divergence reflects how SEE power markets do not converge uniformly. It reported that convergence can collapse under stress, with gas- and import-dependent systems repricing sharply while hydro-rich systems temporarily decouple. For traders, the month reinforced the need to treat SEE as a multi-node risk environment rather than a single convergence block.
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