January trading across South-East Europe followed a winter-stress pattern that linked national price formation rather than leaving markets to move independently. Price setting reflected the interaction of short-lived scarcity periods, evening ramp constraints and limits on cross-border coupling. Monthly averages were elevated, but the month’s economic tone was set by a limited number of hours and days that redistributed value between flexible and inflexible participants.
Serbia’s SEEPEX: wide daily swings around high monthly averages
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead market cleared at an average baseload price of €118.13/MWh and an average peak price of €136.27/MWh in January. Within the same month, baseload daily prices ranged from €66.89/MWh to €228.29/MWh. Peak prices reached €293.84/MWh on the most stressed delivery day. Total traded volume was 404,970.3 MWh, down 18.3% month-on-month.
Croatia’s CROPEX: higher structural pricing with similar intramonth volatility
Croatia’s CROPEX remained structurally higher through the month, with average baseload at €143.16/MWh and average peak at €165.66/MWh. Traded volumes totaled 658,973.3 MWh. Baseload days in January ranged from €68.85/MWh to €226.64/MWh, matching the broad volatility seen in Serbia’s market outcomes. Croatia’s pricing profile was tied to import parity and corridor economics, with prices softening when regional supply was ample and shifting into higher-cost bands when imports tightened during evening ramps.
Romania’s OPCOM: highest regional price levels across day-ahead products
Romania’s OPCOM day-ahead market acted as a regional high-price anchor in January. The month averaged €150.51/MWh for baseload, €176.60/MWh for peak and €124.42/MWh for off-peak. Day-ahead traded volumes reached 1,520,885.0 MWh and represented a 32.04% market share within the reported set of exchanges. The higher monthly mean was associated with frequent clearings under tight thermal margins or import parity during stress intervals.
Montenegro’s MEPX: thin liquidity alongside extreme minimums and maximums
Montenegro’s MEPX showed liquidity-driven sensitivity in January, with average daily baseload at €103.45/MWh and average daily peak at €115.05/MWh. Monthly traded volume was 39,572.2 MWh, with average daily volume of 1,276.5 MWh. Despite the modest averages versus Romania or Croatia, January produced a baseload minimum day at €18.79/MWh and a peak minimum day at €26.12/MWh, while maximum days reached €156.24/MWh for baseload and €186.38/MWh for peak.
Coupling corridors: Romania flows with Bulgaria skewed one-way; Hungary interface more balanced
The alignment of national price patterns reflected how coupling corridors affected whether scarcity was shared or isolated during the month. On the Romania–Bulgaria border, executed day-ahead flows totaled 408,525.4 MWh from Bulgaria into Romania versus 131,397.9 MWh in the opposite direction. Offered capacity utilization was 31.64% for Bulgaria-to-Romania compared with 6.75% for Romania-to-Bulgaria, indicating predominantly one-way economic flow direction for much of the month.
On the Romania–Hungary interface, volumes were more balanced: 363,560.1 MWh flowed from Hungary to Romania and 249,818.4 MWh flowed from Romania to Hungary in January day-ahead trading data cited in the report set. This two-way movement indicated multiple shifts in price leadership depending on which system faced marginal stress during specific periods.
Bulgaria’s IBEX: record coupled volumes amid volatile winter trading
Bulgaria’s IBEX data added further detail on regional coupling intensity during January volatility. Day-ahead traded volumes reached 2,881,781.2 MWh, up 10% month-on-month, with a new daily record of 107,207.43 MWh on 27 January.
The reported coupled-volume pattern showed how interconnector activity could coincide with periods when scarcity value was highest while leaving residual scarcity priced locally during constrained intervals.
Regime shifts between energy-long calm hours and flexibility-short ramps
The reported January mechanics were characterized by repeated regime shifts rather than persistently high prices across all hours in each market area mentioned in the dataset set. In energy-long windows, prices across Serbia, Croatia and even Romania could soften toward a €60–€70/MWh band while Montenegro could fall into double-digit pricing levels.
In flexibility-short windows—particularly evening ramps under cold conditions—the system repriced rapidly into scarcity conditions described as affecting Serbia and Romania most strongly among the cited markets for peak outcomes.
Price spreads shaping outcomes for flexible assets versus inflexible demand
The distributional effects described for January pointed to monetization opportunities linked to controllable flexibility rather than flat energy delivery profiles across all hours of the month. The report cited hydro operators with scheduling discretion, fast-ramping thermal units and portfolio traders with cross-border optionality as primary winners among controllable participants.
The spread between off-peak levels such as Romania’s €124.42/MWh off-peak average and peak averages such as Romania’s €176.60/MWh was cited alongside Serbian minimum baseload days at €66.89/MWh versus peak extremes near €293.84/MWh as examples of shape-related value.
Higher procurement pressure for inflexible buyers during stress intervals
The clearest losers identified were inflexible buyers and suppliers that were structurally short during stress intervals described in the report set for January trading conditions across Serbia, Croatia and Romania alongside Montenegro outcomes.
The report cited industrial consumers without load-shifting capability, district heating systems exposed to evening peaks and suppliers relying on flat baseload hedges as facing disproportionate cost driven by a relatively small slice of hours.
Regional range includes both low baseload minimums and high peak extremes
The same integrated winter-stress system described earlier supported outcomes ranging from Montenegro’s baseload minimum day at €18.79/MWh to Serbia’s peak extremes around €293.84/MWh within January trading data referenced across exchanges.
Bulgaria feeding Romania at more than three times the reverse flow was cited as one corridor asymmetry alongside thin liquidity in smaller markets such as Montenegro as factors consistent with how both low minimums and high peak days appeared within the same month across the region.