Week 23 saw a rise in cross-border electricity movements across Southeast Europe. Regional net imports increased 9.1% week on week to 1.22 TWh, with higher demand and weaker renewables contributing to greater reliance on balancing across borders. The change reflected shifts in national net positions rather than a single-country driver.
Regional import volumes broaden across multiple markets
Hungary recorded the largest increase in net imports, up 64.7% to 179.75 GWh. Romania raised imports by 34.0%, while Croatia increased net imports by 18.5%. Italy remained the biggest net importer at 950.91 GWh, although its imports fell 14.1% from the previous week.
Greece and Türkiye continued as net exporters during the week, but both reduced export volumes. The broad pattern of higher imports in several markets coincided with continued export activity elsewhere in the region. Together, these flows contributed to the overall increase in regional net imports.
Price fragmentation persists across Southeast Europe bidding zones
Despite the higher import volumes, market pricing remained fragmented across the region. Italy averaged €128.09/MWh, while Greece averaged €89.25/MWh. Serbia posted €99.63/MWh, Bulgaria €100.83/MWh, Romania €102.23/MWh, Hungary €103.15/MWh, and Croatia €99.29/MWh.
The spread between these averages created theoretical arbitrage opportunities, with outcomes dependent on interconnector availability, congestion and scheduling rules. Actual value therefore varied according to operational constraints on cross-border transfers rather than price differences alone.
Transmission capacity links price zones amid constrained conditions
The role of transmission capacity became more prominent as cross-border flows increased and spreads persisted. Moving power between price zones can be as important as generation for market participants seeking to capture differences between areas. Traders securing capacity across constrained borders can target spreads, while generators with export routes can improve realised prices.
Industrial buyers can also use cross-border supply structures to reduce procurement costs when they are able to arrange deliveries across borders under applicable rules. In practice, these outcomes depend on whether capacity is available and whether schedules can be executed given congestion and operational limits.
Italy remains highest-priced and largest importer; Hungary’s hub role grows
Italy remained the highest-priced SEE market and the largest net importer during Week 23, even as its import volume declined by 14.1%. The regional pricing gap meant that lower-cost power from parts of the Balkans could have value when it reaches Italian or Central European demand centres, subject to transfer conditions.
Hungary also stood out for its import increase, rising by 64.7% to 179.75 GWh. Linked to Austria, Slovakia, Croatia, Serbia and Romania, Hungary can transmit price signals across multiple borders, and its weekly average price of €103.15/MWh placed it in the upper regional cluster.
Renewables variability increases dependence on cross-border flexibility
The importance of interconnectors extends beyond trading when renewable generation affects system balance. Wind and solar variability can change a country’s net position quickly, shifting it between export and import needs depending on weather conditions.
A market with surplus solar at midday may require imports later in the day, while a wind-heavy system can move from export to import as conditions change. Cross-border capacity therefore functions as a flexibility tool alongside its role in market transactions.
Policy and investment implications for grid access and market design
TSOs and regulators pointed to Week 23 as reinforcing the relevance of grid reinforcement, market coupling, intraday liquidity and transparent capacity allocation for cross-border operations. For investors, the week highlighted that generation assessments need to consider grid access and export optionality alongside project characteristics.
A project located in a constrained node may face different value outcomes compared with a similar asset that has access to liquid cross-border routes under prevailing conditions. SEE remains not fully integrated into one price zone, but it is increasingly operating as an interconnected balancing region where interconnector constraints shape outcomes.