In Week 24, Croatia’s electricity market recorded a lower wholesale level, with the day-ahead average dropping by 7.3% to €92.02/MWh. The resulting price was broadly aligned with Greece at €91.53/MWh and Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh, placing Croatia within the regional mid-price range.
Electricity demand increased by 3.9%, reaching 311.46 GWh. The change followed the wider seasonal pattern across Southeast Europe, where consumption shifts toward higher summer levels.
Renewables output contracts as wind conditions weaken
Variable renewable generation fell sharply, with total output declining by 35.9%. Croatia was the only analysed market to show a significant contraction in wind and solar production during the week.
The reduction was driven primarily by weaker wind conditions, which lowered the contribution of low-cost renewable supply to the system. This decline affected the renewables portion of supply available for balancing over the period.
Hydropower increases to offset the renewable shortfall
The renewables shortfall was offset by a stronger hydropower response. Croatian hydro generation rose by 43.5%, equivalent to an increase of 10.1 GWh.
This hydro recovery produced a balancing structure that differed from Serbia, Bulgaria and Türkiye, where hydro output weakened and thermal generation took a larger share of system adjustment. In Croatia, the shift toward higher hydro output supported the overall supply balance during the week.
Imports decline while gas inflows remain steady
Croatia’s external position showed mild improvement as net electricity imports declined by 8.9%. The stronger hydro generation helped reduce reliance on cross-border supply despite weaker wind-related renewables.
LNG inflows remained broadly stable at 640.83 GWh, falling only slightly by 0.7%. The figures indicate no major change in Croatia’s gas supply balance over the same period.
Hydrology and cross-border flows shape price formation
Croatia’s Week 24 dynamics highlighted hydrological variability as a key pricing driver in its electricity market. While other parts of Southeast Europe saw a broader narrative linked to rising wind and solar output, Croatia’s price movement tracked hydro availability more closely than renewables.
For market participants, including traders and industrial consumers, price formation could shift rapidly based on hydrology, wind conditions and cross-border flows. Week 24 showed that even when wind and solar output weakened, stronger hydropower conditions supported system balancing and helped keep wholesale prices lower.