In the third week of June, Brent crude oil futures followed a volatile but overall downward path. Front Month ICE contracts reached a weekly peak settlement price of $83.17/bbl on June 15, which was already 4.8% lower than the previous Friday. Prices then turned lower, with a sharp move on June 16.
On June 16, Brent fell 5.1% in a single session to a weekly minimum of $78.96/bbl. That level was the lowest since March 3. Toward the end of the week, prices partially recovered, but Brent still closed at $80.57/bbl on June 19.
The June 19 settlement left Brent 7.7% below the previous week’s close. Throughout the week, Brent remained under the $85/bbl threshold. The pattern reflected shifting expectations tied to both geopolitical developments and supply outlooks.
Geopolitical talks and IEA surplus projection weigh on crude
The decline was linked to geopolitical and supply-side expectations during the same period. Progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran was cited alongside other market drivers. The International Energy Agency projected a potential global crude surplus by 2027.
With those factors in view, Brent futures stayed consistently below $85/bbl during the week. This kept market sentiment weaker as prices moved lower and volatility persisted across sessions. The same broader dynamics carried into European gas trading.
TTF natural gas prices ease after mid-month peak
TTF natural gas futures also declined across the week, moving in line with bearish energy market dynamics. The Front Month ICE contract reached its weekly high of €42.51/MWh on June 15, already down 9.1% from the previous week’s close. After that peak, prices dropped further.
The contract then fell to a weekly low of €40.52/MWh on June 18, the lowest level since April 21. By June 19, prices rebounded slightly to €42.09/MWh. Even with that recovery, the contract ended the week 10% below the prior week’s level.
AleaSoft reported that both oil and gas markets in the third week of June were marked by weakening prices and intermittent volatility. Downward pressure was attributed to improving supply expectations and easing geopolitical risk premiums across the period.