Electricity prices rose across Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Romania and Italy in Week 25, while Greece and Bulgaria moved lower. Greece recorded a 6.6% decline to €85.50/MWh. Bulgaria fell by 6.4% to €87.58/MWh. The two countries emerged as key price stabilisers in Southeast Europe after Türkiye.
Greece: higher wind and solar output supports lower prices
Greece posted one of the strongest renewable energy performances in the region during the week. Total variable renewable generation increased by 18.2%, with wind output up by 37.5%. Solar generation rose by 11.4%. The additional low-marginal-cost production strengthened Greece’s supply position as regional demand grew.
With supply conditions improving, price pressure was limited despite higher demand across the region. Greece maintained significantly lower prices than several neighbouring markets that were more exposed to regional scarcity conditions. The shift reflected the interaction between renewable output and system balance during Week 25.
Bulgaria: solar strength and export growth offset weaker hydropower
Bulgaria’s weekly pattern differed from Greece’s, with solar generation playing a larger role. Stronger solar output compensated for weaker wind production. The country also expanded its role as a regional electricity supplier. Net exports increased by 91.8%, reinforcing Bulgaria’s position within the SEE market.
Hydropower generation declined sharply by 39.4%, but the overall supply balance remained competitive. This helped prevent prices from moving in line with the upward trajectory seen elsewhere in the region during Week 25.
Regional balancing role and cross-border trading conditions
Greece and Bulgaria function as balancing hubs within southern and eastern Southeast European electricity corridors. When their prices stay below those of Hungary, Romania and Croatia, cross-border trading opportunities increase through export flows and regional arbitrage. The scale of these opportunities depends on transmission capacity, congestion levels and hourly market conditions.
Week 25 also showed that renewable expansion does not produce a uniform market outcome across countries. In systems where renewable output aligns with demand patterns and export opportunities, prices can soften and market stability can improve. Where strong midday solar production is not matched by sufficient evening flexibility, elevated prices can persist.
Implications for procurement, trading and investment strategies
The Week 25 outcomes placed Greece and Bulgaria closer to the scenario where renewables support softer pricing dynamics. For electricity buyers, procurement geography became more relevant to price outcomes across borders. For traders, the relatively lower-priced Greece-Bulgaria corridor offered a counterbalance to tighter Central European-linked markets.
For investors, both countries demonstrated the value of combining renewable generation with storage, export capability and cross-border optimisation strategies during the week. Their performance also indicated that competitiveness is influenced not only by generation volumes, but by how effectively countries integrate renewables, manage flexibility and position themselves within the regional network.