Most day-ahead power markets across Southeast Europe declined on 12 August, with Hungary and the wider region moving from net import positions into a small net-export outcome. The change was linked to higher wind and solar forecasts improving the regional supply balance, alongside demand that was slightly softer. Day-ahead prices fell across most markets in the region and in Hungary.
Day-ahead price moves across Southeast Europe
Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract settled at EUR 144.89/MWh, down EUR 6.50/MWh versus the previous session. Romania fell by EUR 11.60 to EUR 137.91/MWh, while Bulgaria dropped by EUR 21.10 to EUR 125.58/MWh. Serbia recorded the largest decrease, falling by EUR 36.30 to EUR 113.61/MWh.
Greece remained the cheapest Southeast European market at EUR 104.46/MWh, down EUR 11.30. Slovenia and Croatia were close to Hungary at EUR 145.07/MWh and EUR 144.53/MWh respectively. Montenegro settled at EUR 141.50/MWh, while North Macedonia reached EUR 139.47/MWh.
Albania was the only market in the region with a notable increase, rising by EUR 6.60 to EUR 156.43/MWh. Italy stayed the most expensive neighboring market at EUR 176.07/MWh despite a decline of EUR 5.10.
Germany rises as Hungary’s premium narrows
Germany moved in the opposite direction, with its day-ahead price rising by EUR 28 to EUR 138.40/MWh. That increase reduced Hungary’s premium over Germany to EUR 6.49/MWh, compared with around EUR 41/MWh one day earlier. Hungary traded at EUR 40.43/MWh above Greece, EUR 19.30/MWh above Bulgaria and EUR 31.27/MWh above Serbia.
Renewable output forecasts and demand outlook
The main driver cited for the price declines was a large rise in renewable generation forecasts for the region. Expected solar output across Hungary and Southeast Europe increased by 1,731 MW to 8,904 MW. Wind generation forecasts rose by 1,193 MW to 3,825 MW.
Combined wind and solar production was forecast at 12,729 MW, up 2,924 MW from the previous day. Regional electricity demand was forecast at 33,615 MW, down 250 MW day on day. Hungary accounted for much of the decline, with consumption falling by 453 MW to 4,610 MW.
Demand increased by 407 MW across Romania and Bulgaria and by 23 MW in Greece, while Slovenia and Croatia recorded a combined decline of 265 MW.
Cross-border flows shift toward net exports
The stronger renewable balance altered cross-border power flows for Hungary and Southeast Europe. The region moved from net imports of 1,786 MW on Tuesday to net exports of 214 MW on Wednesday, a swing of about 2,000 MW. Imports from Austria and Slovakia fell by 1,793 MW to 1,089 MW, while exports toward Italy increased by 237 MW to around 1,302 MW.
At country level, Greece was the largest net exporter at 1,763 MW, followed by Bulgaria at 1,155 MW. Hungary remained the largest importer at 1,468 MW, while Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro also stayed in deficit. Romania recorded a modest net-export position of 287 MW.
Hungarian forward prices firm despite weaker spot market
Nearing-term Hungarian power forwards strengthened even as spot prices weakened in the prompt market assessment for the day-ahead session. Week 34 rose by EUR 6.50/MWh to EUR 161/MWh, while week 35 gained the same amount to EUR 160/MWh. September power declined by EUR 3.50/MWh to EUR /MWh.
The calendar year contract for 2026 fell by EUR 1.50/MWh to EUR 125/MWh . The week-ahead Hungarian premium over Germany widened to EUR 30.50/MWh for week 34 and EUR 36.50/MWh for week 35 . The September spread stood at EUR 28/MWh , while the calendar 2026 spread remained unchanged at EUR 20.50/MWh . Fuel markets also moved lower along parts of the curve , with September gas falling by EUR 2 to EUR 60/MWh . The fourth-quarter contract declined by EUR 2.50 to the same level . Austrian CEGH spot gas was broadly unchanged at EUR 60.75/MWh . EU carbon allowances edged up by EUR 0.20 to EUR 82.44/t . September coal rose by USD 0.50 to USD 122/t , while the fourth-quarter contract stayed at USD 124.50/t .