South-east European day-ahead power prices fell sharply for Friday delivery as a substantial increase in renewable generation and a major improvement in Romania’s power balance eased the regional tightness that had pushed prices higher earlier in the week.
The most dramatic move came in Serbia, where prices dropped by more than €40/MWh, creating an exceptional discount of around €25/MWh to Hungary’s HUPX. At the other end of the region, Montenegro remained at a premium, while Italy continued to trade more than €50/MWh above the central SEE price cluster.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload settled at €152.14/MWh, down €19.50/MWh day on day. Romania fell €21.50/MWh to €153.13/MWh, Bulgaria dropped €19.60/MWh to €152.78/MWh, while Greece declined €20.40/MWh to €152.87/MWh. Slovenia, Croatia, Albania and North Macedonia also converged within a narrow range of approximately €152-153.5/MWh.
The result was an unusually flat regional price structure stretching from Albania and Greece through Bulgaria and Romania to Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia.
The main exceptions were Serbia and Montenegro. Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload plunged to €127.11/MWh, down €40.90/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN price eased only €1.90/MWh to €164.06/MWh. Serbia consequently traded at a €25.04/MWh discount to HUPX, while Montenegro retained an €11.92/MWh premium.
Italy remained by far the highest-priced neighbouring market, with national baseload at €205.52/MWh, approximately €53.38/MWh above Hungary.
Renewables drive the correction
The sharp fall in regional prices came despite broadly stable demand. Combined HU+SEE consumption was forecast at 34.19 GW, approximately 168 MW higher than the previous day.
Instead, the market experienced a significant supply-side easing.
Net regional imports declined from 2.43 GW to 1.57 GW, while imports from the central European core through Austria and Slovakia fell by around 850 MW to 2.62 GW. At the same time, commercial exports towards Italy increased slightly to approximately 1.55 GW.
Renewable generation was the most immediate bearish factor. Solar availability was forecast at around 8.14 GW, an increase of 1.71 GW compared with the previous session, while wind forecasts rose by a further 1.36 GW to approximately 3 GW.
Together, this represented more than 3 GW of additional variable renewable generation entering the regional balance within a single day — enough to significantly alter the marginal generation stack even as consumption remained broadly unchanged.
The effect was particularly visible in hourly prices. HUPX baseload averaged €152.10/MWh, but the peak contract settled at just €124/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €180.30/MWh.
The hourly minimum fell to €67.10/MWh in hour 13, while the evening maximum reached €225.80/MWh in hour 22.
The approximately €159/MWh difference between the midday trough and the late-evening peak highlights the growing importance of solar generation in shaping intraday price formation across the region.
Romania shifts from importer to exporter
Romania was arguably the most important cross-border fundamental behind Friday’s broader market correction.
The country’s system moved from an average net import position of approximately 910 MW on Thursday to a net export position of 586 MW on Friday.
Total generation increased from 4.92 GW to 6.20 GW, while consumption declined from 5.83 GW to 5.61 GW. The combined effect improved Romania’s daily power balance by almost 1.5 GW.
That improvement was transmitted directly into Hungary.
The Romania-Hungary border switched from flows towards Romania on Thursday to an average 616 MW flowing from Romania into Hungary on Friday. During peak hours, Romanian exports towards Hungary reached an average of 1.45 GW, compared with reverse flows averaging 219 MW on the previous day.
The reversal contributed to one of the session’s most significant pricing developments: the collapse in the Hungary-Germany day-ahead spread.
Germany’s day-ahead price increased to €143.55/MWh, while HUPX fell to €152.14/MWh, compressing the HU-DE spread to just €8.59/MWh from approximately €46/MWh previously.
The spread therefore narrowed by around €37.5/MWh in a single session.
Hungary nevertheless remained a net importer on a daily-average basis. Consumption was forecast at 4.67 GW, down from 4.85 GW, while generation declined from 3.94 GW to 3.71 GW, leaving the country with a net import requirement of approximately 959 MW, slightly above Thursday’s 915 MW.
However, the composition of those imports changed significantly. Stronger Romanian supply complemented substantial inflows from Slovakia and allowed Hungary to export towards Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia during parts of the day.
The hourly picture was particularly revealing. Romania supplied Hungary heavily during the daytime solar period, while Hungarian peak-hour flows towards Austria also reversed direction.
Although Hungary remained a net importer from Austria across the full day, it exported an average of 448 MW towards the Austrian market during peak hours. Hungary also exported around 1 GW on average towards Croatia and approximately 564 MW towards Slovenia.
Bulgaria strengthens exports as eastern SEE converges
Bulgaria provided another bearish element for regional prices.
Generation increased from 4.58 GW to 5.18 GW, while consumption rose from 3.61 GW to 4.04 GW. The increase in generation nevertheless exceeded the additional demand, lifting Bulgaria’s average export position from approximately 976 MW to 1.14 GW.
Exports towards Greece strengthened particularly sharply. Baseload flows reached approximately 611 MW from Bulgaria towards Greece, while the peak flow reversed from an average 142 MW flowing from Greece into Bulgaria on Thursday to almost 500 MW flowing from Bulgaria into Greece on Friday.
The additional Romanian and Bulgarian exports helped pull the eastern SEE markets into unusually tight convergence.
Romania, Bulgaria and Greece differed by less than €0.40/MWh, while all three traded within roughly €1/MWh of HUPX.
Serbia becomes the region’s cheapest market
Serbia moved sharply in the opposite direction.
SEEPEX baseload plunged from €168/MWh to €127.10/MWh, while the peak average fell to just €108.80/MWh. The hourly minimum reached €69/MWh around hour 13, while the daily maximum was only €170/MWh — substantially below neighbouring exchanges.
Serbia’s underlying system balance did improve. Consumption declined from 3.90 GW to 3.79 GW, while generation increased from 3.25 GW to 3.37 GW.
As a result, the country’s net import requirement fell from approximately 650 MW to 415 MW.
However, the roughly 235 MW improvement in Serbia’s power balance alone appears insufficient to explain a €40.90/MWh day-on-day price collapse and a discount of around €25/MWh to most neighbouring organised markets.
The magnitude of the divergence instead points to a combination of domestic bidding conditions, available cross-border transmission capacity and the limited ability of the Serbian market to fully arbitrage against the surrounding coupled price area.
Serbia nevertheless continued to import significant volumes from neighbouring systems.
Average Romanian supply towards Serbia increased to approximately 197 MW, with peak-hour flows reaching 485 MW. Bulgaria supplied around 151 MW on average, while imports from Hungary averaged approximately 108 MW.
At the same time, Serbia exported around 182 MW towards Montenegro.
The result was an unusual market configuration: Serbia remained a net importer while simultaneously becoming the cheapest market in the wider region.
That makes the SEEPEX-HUPX spread one of the most important trading signals heading into the next session. A rapid recoupling could offer significant upside from Friday’s depressed Serbian price, while continued congestion or locally abundant offers could maintain the discount despite stronger prices across neighbouring markets.
Montenegro remains expensive as Italy pulls regional flows westward
Montenegro occupied the opposite end of the SEE price spectrum.
BELEN baseload remained at €164.06/MWh, almost €12/MWh above HUPX and nearly €37/MWh above Serbia.
The country’s load increased to approximately 493 MW, while generation reached around 350 MW, leaving Montenegro with a net import requirement of roughly 144 MW.
At the same time, commercial flows towards Italy reached approximately 600 MW, reflecting the continued pull from the significantly more expensive Italian market.
Italy’s national baseload remained near €205.50/MWh, while peak power traded at approximately €205/MWh and off-peak at €206.10/MWh.
Unlike Hungary and the eastern SEE markets, Italy showed little evidence of solar-driven price compression.
The broader HU+SEE region exported approximately 1.55 GW towards Italy while simultaneously importing around 2.62 GW from Austria and Slovakia.
This structure effectively leaves SEE acting as a transmission corridor between central and eastern European supply and Italy’s persistent price premium.
Forward markets remain firm
Forward markets provided little indication that Friday’s sharp spot-market correction marked the beginning of a broader decline.
Hungarian Week 36 power increased by €5/MWh to €159.50/MWh, while the September contract gained €3/MWh to €166/MWh. The Calendar 2026 contract rose by €1/MWh to €133.50/MWh.
The Week 36 HU-DE forward spread remained substantial at €38.50/MWh.
Meanwhile, CEGH gas strengthened to €68.18/MWh, while EUA prices remained broadly stable at approximately €82.42/t.
The divergence between sharply weaker spot prices and firmer Hungarian prompt forwards suggests that Friday’s correction was primarily driven by weather conditions, renewable output and changing cross-border flows rather than a broader fuel-driven repricing.
Three spreads to watch
The next directional signal is likely to come from changes in renewable forecasts and Romanian cross-border flows.
If the additional solar and wind generation persists, midday prices are likely to remain under pressure and the significant peak/off-peak inversion could continue.
However, the evening market remains considerably tighter. Despite the lower daily average, HUPX still reached more than €225/MWh after sunset, underlining the continuing importance of the post-solar ramp.
For regional traders, three spreads now stand out.
The first is the SEEPEX-HUPX spread, following Serbia’s exceptional discount of approximately €25/MWh.
The second is the HUPX-Germany spread, which compressed from more than €46/MWh to below €9/MWh in a single session.
The third is the western SEE-Italy premium, which remains above €50/MWh and continues to attract exports towards the Adriatic corridor.
Together, these spreads show a regional market that has become cheaper but not uniformly looser. Additional renewable generation has removed much of the scarcity premium that supported prices earlier in the week, while transmission constraints, cross-border flows and Italy’s structurally higher price continue to create significant price differences between neighbouring markets.