Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices fell for Wednesday delivery as wind and solar output improved, domestic generation increased and import requirements eased compared with the prior session. The changes reduced the scarcity premium that had lifted regional prices above western European benchmarks on Tuesday.
The largest correction was recorded in Serbia. SEEPEX baseload dropped by €105.7/MWh to €211.42/MWh, making Serbia the lowest-priced market in the region and bringing it close to Germany at €211.94/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX fell €74.1/MWh to €252.42/MWh, while Romania declined to €246.11/MWh and Bulgaria to €245.14/MWh.
Demand rises while net imports fall on renewable recovery
Regional electricity consumption is forecast at 31,756 MW, up 527 MW day on day, while total net imports are expected to decline by 152 MW to 3,479 MW. Solar generation is forecast to increase by 388 MW to 5,552 MW, and wind output is expected to rise by 510 MW to 1,772 MW.
The balance between higher renewable availability and easing import needs contributed to lower spot prices despite higher demand levels. Price formation across SEE was influenced by marginal generation availability rather than consumption alone.
Serbia shifts from scarcity premium to regional discount
Serbia showed the clearest change in underlying balance. Consumption is forecast to rise to 3,956 MW from 3,841 MW, while generation increases more sharply to 3,403 MW from 2,862 MW.
The average net import requirement falls to around 553 MW versus 979 MW a day earlier. The reduction of roughly 426 MW in import needs coincided with SEEPEX moving from Tuesday’s €317.1/MWh level to a €41/MWh discount versus Hungary on Wednesday.
Hourly pricing also reflected the shift. Serbia’s maximum price fell from €450/MWh to €317.6/MWh, while its minimum dropped to €130/MWh around H14. On HUPX, prices followed a similar midday pattern tied to solar output, ranging between €152.4/MWh and €333.1/MWh.
Regional corridor compresses as multiple markets price lower
Germany’s price moved higher while Serbia fell further into alignment with it. Germany rose €16.3/MWh to €211.94/MWh as Hungary declined sharply, narrowing the HU-DE spread to €40.49/MWh from about €131/MWh.
Other interconnected markets also moved lower following Hungary’s correction. OPCOM in Romania fell €61.1/MWh to €246.11/MWh and IBEX in Bulgaria declined €54.8/MWh to €245.14/MWh; CROPEX dropped €32.7/MWh to €238.59/MWh and Slovenia fell to €235.76/MWh.
BELEN in Montenegro decreased by €40.5/MWh to €254.27/MWh, while Italy settled at €252.40/MWh, close to Hungary’s baseload level at that time. With the exception of some outliers, prices across Slovenia, Croatia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Italy were largely clustered between roughly €236 and €254/MWh.
North Macedonia and Albania diverge; Greece changes hourly range
The convergence was incomplete across all markets covered. North Macedonia remained at €267.45/MWh, while Albania rose by €30.6/MWh to €285.56/MWh for baseload, the highest level among the markets listed.
Albania’s physical balance supported that divergence: consumption increased to 876 MW from 839 MW while generation fell to 511 MW from 545 MW. Its average import requirement rose to around 366 MW from 294 MW, leaving ALPEX trading roughly €33/MWh above Hungary and about €74/MWh above Serbia.
Greece also showed a change in hourly structure even as its baseload moved only modestly lower on HENEX. Baseload slipped by €7.3/MWh to €240.56/MWh, but the minimum hourly price increased to €156.6/MWh compared with €32.9/MWh on Tuesday and zero prices during several previous sessions.
The Greek maximum fell from €396.1/MWh to €312/MWh as well. The narrowing between minimum and maximum indicated fewer very low midday hours alongside a softer scarcity premium during higher-priced periods.
Forward prices stay elevated; fuel and carbon move mixed
The spot decline did not translate into an equivalent fall in forward pricing for Hungary’s contracts referenced in the market data provided. Hungarian Week 44 remained at €267/MWh down from a prior level by €3, while Week 45 increased by €7 to reach €259/MWh.
November eased by €6 to €244/MWh and the Calendar-2026 contract declined by €4 to reach €166/MWh. In fuel markets, November gas fell by €3.5 to €86.50/MWh and Q1-2027 gas decreased to €85.50/MWh; November coal slipped by €4 to reach €150.5/tonne.
EUA carbon allowances, however, edged up by €0.3 to settle at €85.65/tonne.
Oct. 21 session reflects normalization after Tuesday’s tightness
The Oct. 21 session reflected a rapid adjustment after Tuesday’s scarcity episode rather than a sustained move into lower pricing based on the information provided for spot and forward markets.
Serbia benefited most from stronger domestic supply alongside lower import dependence as shown by its reduced average net import requirement compared with the prior day’s level of 979 MW versus around 553 MW for Wednesday delivery.
The same dataset also shows how quickly spreads can change when regional balance improves: the HU-DE spread narrowed sharply alongside Serbia’s convergence with Germany at around the low-€210s per MWh range reported for Wednesday delivery.
Albania’s opposite direction remained a separate signal within SEE due to its higher average import requirement of around 366 MW compared with about 294 MW previously referenced for Tuesday conditions.
The next test highlighted in the data is whether higher renewable output and improved domestic generation persist into subsequent sessions; otherwise wind weakening or changes in thermal availability or cross-border capacity could rebuild an import-dependent premium similar in direction to Tuesday’s outcome described for SEEPEX and other regional markets.