Hungary and Serbia recorded Southeast Europe’s highest day-ahead electricity prices on Thursday, with both markets above €260/MWh as demand growth and a regional supply shortfall drove up imports. Prices moved lower in Greece, Albania, Montenegro and much of the western Balkans, widening the gap between markets across the region. Hungary’s HUPX baseload price gained €10.8 to €263.21/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX rose €49.2 to €260.63/MWh, leaving a difference of just €2.58/MWh between them.
Prices also remained elevated in Romania and Bulgaria: OPCOM settled at €251.53/MWh, up €5.4, and IBEX at €250.17/MWh, up €5.0. North Macedonia reached €249.48/MWh, while Montenegro, Croatia, Albania and Slovenia traded at roughly €229-239/MWh. Greece moved in the opposite direction, with HENEX down €39.3 to €201.29/MWh and a €61.92/MWh discount to Hungary.
Germany’s price fell more sharply, to €148.61/MWh, putting Hungary at a €114.60/MWh premium. The divergence indicates that physical power balances and cross-border constraints, rather than fuel prices, were the main influences on the day’s market. Regional day-ahead power markets showed sharply different price outcomes despite their geographic proximity.
Demand growth drives regional imports higher
Combined electricity consumption in Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast at 32,624 MW, an increase of 1,256 MW, or about 4%, from Wednesday. Regional net imports climbed by 1,296 MW to 4,713 MW, covering roughly 14% of total consumption. Imports from the Austrian-Slovak core into Hungary and Southeast Europe rose by 964 MW to 4,410 MW, while flows from Italy into the region increased by 283 MW to 383 MW.
Renewable output forecasts also shifted: solar generation was expected to fall by 571 MW to 3,735 MW, while wind generation was forecast to rise by 409 MW to 3,100 MW. Total regional generation remained broadly stable at around 27.9 GW, against demand of more than 32.6 GW, leaving the system increasingly reliant on external supply. The previous day’s generation mix had already depended heavily on coal and gas, while hydro output had declined by more than 600 MW.
Higher demand, lower solar availability and limited additional domestic generation helped lift prices in northern and central Balkan markets even as German prices fell. The regional pattern reflects the limits of cross-border transmission: lower-priced power may be available nearby, but network capacity can prevent markets from converging fully.
Hungary faces the region’s tightest balance
Hungary remained at the centre of the supply imbalance. Consumption rose to 5,235 MW, while domestic generation was around 2,536 MW, leaving average net imports at approximately 2,699 MW. Imports therefore supplied more than half of the country’s electricity demand.
Hungary drew substantial volumes from Austria and Slovakia while also sending power to neighbouring Southeast European markets. Average commercial flows were about 1,307 MW from Austria into Hungary and 1,822 MW from Slovakia. At the same time, Hungary exported around 614 MW to Romania and 526 MW to Croatia.
Serbia also supplied Hungary, with average flows of around 642 MW. The Hungary-Germany spread widened to €114.60/MWh despite heavy imports from Central Europe, indicating that available interconnection capacity was being used extensively but was not sufficient to remove the scarcity premium in Hungary and adjacent markets. Germany’s day-ahead price fell by more than €63/MWh while Hungary’s increased, pointing to congestion between the markets.
Serbian prices rebound as power flows north
Serbia recorded one of the largest daily price increases, with SEEPEX rising from €211.4/MWh to €260.63/MWh, a gain of more than 23%. The Serbian market ended just €2.58/MWh below HUPX. Average Serbian peak prices reached €281.9/MWh, compared with €239.4/MWh off-peak, and the maximum hourly price was €343.4/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer despite relatively strong domestic generation. Consumption was forecast at about 3,928 MW against generation of approximately 3,220 MW, leaving a net deficit close to 708 MW. Power flowed into Serbia from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro, while significant volumes moved north from Serbia to Hungary.
Average commercial exports from Serbia to Hungary reached about 642 MW. Bulgaria supplied Serbia with roughly 338 MW and Bosnia and Herzegovina with around 345 MW. Serbia was therefore both a deficit market and a transit route connecting lower-priced Balkan supply with Hungary’s price premium.
Greek surplus widens discount to Hungary
Greece offered the clearest counterweight to tight conditions in Hungary. Consumption was broadly unchanged at about 5,282 MW, while generation was forecast at around 6,441 MW, leaving approximately 1,159 MW of net exports. The surplus contributed to a fall in HENEX baseload to €201.29/MWh.
Hourly prices ranged from a minimum of just €1/MWh to a maximum of €290/MWh. The very low afternoon price was consistent with a strong solar-driven midday surplus, followed by tighter conditions in the evening. The resulting Greek-Hungarian price difference widened to almost €62/MWh.
That spread represents substantial theoretical arbitrage value, but its persistence shows that transmission constraints across the Balkans continue to limit the amount of cheaper southern electricity reaching higher-priced Central European markets.
Prices ease across Montenegro and the western Balkans
Montenegro’s BELEN price fell €15.3 to €238.93/MWh, more than €24/MWh below Hungary. Its peak price remained higher, averaging €258.5/MWh, compared with €219.3/MWh off-peak. Montenegro’s power balance was close to even, with consumption around 340 MW, generation near 311 MW and net imports of only about 28 MW.
The country continued to serve as a cross-border transit point. Average flows towards Serbia were around 174 MW, while the Montenegro-Italy link carried flows predominantly towards Montenegro during the day. Croatia’s price declined to €234.06/MWh and Slovenia’s to €228.63/MWh.
Albania posted one of the session’s largest falls, dropping €51.6 to €233.99/MWh. The western Balkan markets consequently traded well below Serbia and Hungary, although several individual systems remained dependent on imports.
Fuel prices do not match electricity movements
The electricity price increases were not accompanied by a comparable rise in spot gas. Austrian CEGH gas fell €1.2 to €89.63/MWh, while the Greek gas indicator declined €4.6 to €79.19/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged up just €0.3 to €85.91/tonne.
The divergence points to a power-system-driven move, with demand, renewable output, generation availability and transmission congestion playing a larger role than a sudden increase in marginal fuel costs. Forward markets continued to reflect tight conditions in Hungary. Hungarian Week 44 and Week 45 power were both quoted at around €263/MWh, while November rose €6 to €250/MWh.
The Hungarian calendar contract increased to €170.50/MWh. These forward prices offered little indication that the regional premium would disappear immediately.
Price gaps highlight transmission constraints
The most notable feature of the October 22 session was the growing separation between regional prices, rather than Hungary’s €263/MWh price or Serbia’s €49/MWh daily increase alone. Germany traded below €150/MWh, Greece at around €201/MWh and Italy at around €225/MWh, while Hungary and Serbia were close to €260/MWh. Imports from Central Europe into Hungary and Southeast Europe were already above 4.4 GW.
For traders, generators and storage operators, the combination increases the value of flexibility and cross-border capacity. Batteries, dispatchable generation, hydro flexibility and transmission rights become more valuable when neighbouring markets can differ by €50-115/MWh during the same delivery day.
The common ADEX intraday continuous environment for Slovenia, Hungary and Serbia launched this week, with the aim of improving operational trading and short-term balancing between the three markets. Improved trading infrastructure cannot, on its own, remove physical grid constraints.
The October 22 session showed how greater market integration across Southeast Europe can make price signals more visible while also exposing limits in the transmission capacity available to arbitrage them. Until additional interconnection, storage and flexible generation are available, periods of high regional demand are likely to continue producing large and commercially significant spreads between Central Europe and the Balkans.