Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices mostly declined on Friday as lower demand and a sharp recovery in solar generation eased the regional balance. However, dependence on imports kept Romania, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Serbia among Europe’s more expensive power markets.
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark dropped €29.1/MWh to €234.07/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX fell €18.4/MWh to €242.27/MWh. Romania remained the region’s highest-priced major market at €250.35/MWh, ahead of Montenegro at €246.60/MWh and Bulgaria at €245.91/MWh.
Prices also retreated in Slovenia, Croatia and North Macedonia. Slovenia fell €13.7/MWh to €214.92/MWh, Croatia declined €13.2/MWh to €220.86/MWh, and North Macedonia lost €16.7/MWh to €232.80/MWh. The movement was not uniform: Greece rose €24.5/MWh to €225.80/MWh, Italy gained €15.1/MWh to €240.44/MWh, and Montenegro increased €7.7/MWh.
Solar recovery reshapes hourly prices
Germany remained much cheaper, at €137.59/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €96.49/MWh premium despite the Hungarian price decline. The spread narrowed by around €18/MWh from Thursday but remained wide, underscoring persistent congestion and the value of north-to-south transmission capacity.
Solar generation was the main downward influence on prices. Regional solar output was forecast at about 5.15 GW, more than 2 GW higher day on day, while wind generation fell by almost 2.8 GW to around 795 MW. Regional consumption was forecast at 31.31 GW, down about 1.26 GW from Thursday.
The changing generation mix produced a more pronounced intraday price pattern. HUPX baseload averaged €234.1/MWh, but prices fell to a low of €86.7/MWh during the solar-heavy middle of the day before reaching a maximum of €314.5/MWh.
Hungarian peak power averaged €192.2/MWh, well below the €276/MWh off-peak average. This showed how solar generation is increasingly suppressing conventional daytime peak prices and shifting scarcity towards the morning and evening. A similar pattern emerged in Greece, where peak power averaged €197/MWh against an off-peak average of €254.6/MWh.
The HENEX minimum rebounded to €90/MWh after dropping close to zero in the previous session. The widening gap between solar hours and evening periods is becoming an increasingly important trading signal for batteries, flexible generation and industrial consumers.
Import needs keep regional markets tight
Despite the spot-price declines, Southeast Europe remained structurally short of electricity. Net imports across Hungary and SEE were forecast at about 3.62 GW, down 872 MW from Thursday but still substantial. Imports from Austria and Slovakia remained particularly high, at around 4.21 GW.
At the same time, the region was forecast to become a net exporter to Italy, with flows of about 519 MW. The movement shows how electricity continues to pass through several interconnected price zones rather than flowing only from western Europe into a single SEE deficit area.
Romania had one of the largest shortfalls, with consumption forecast at about 6.30 GW against generation of around 4.66 GW. Average imports were therefore close to 1.63 GW. Hungary also relied heavily on imported electricity: consumption was roughly 4.23 GW and domestic generation around 3.13 GW, leaving imports of approximately 1.10 GW.
Serbia remained another significant deficit market. Forecast consumption of around 4.01 GW compared with generation of roughly 3.20 GW implied an average import requirement of about 809 MW. The shortfall helps explain why SEEPEX remained at €242.27/MWh even after falling almost €20/MWh from the previous session.
Serbian prices were roughly €8/MWh above Hungary’s and more than €100/MWh above Germany’s. The differences highlight the continuing importance of cross-border capacity, domestic generation availability and balancing requirements for Serbian wholesale prices. Croatia was also a large importer, with a deficit of around 863 MW.
Greece was in the opposite position: generation of around 6.47 GW exceeded consumption of approximately 5.24 GW, leaving exports of roughly 1.23 GW.
Hungary serves as a regional transit market
Cross-border flows point to Hungary’s growing importance not only as an importing market but also as a transit hub. The country imported heavily from Slovakia and Austria while sending large volumes east towards Romania. Commercial flows from Hungary to Romania reached around 1.58 GW on a baseload basis.
That combination of imports from cheaper western and central European markets and exports towards higher-priced eastern markets illustrates Hungary’s central role in the regional trading system. It also helps explain why the Germany-Hungary spread remains one of the key signals for SEE electricity traders.
Several gigawatts of electricity were moving towards the region, but available transmission capacity was not sufficient to fully arbitrage the price difference.
Forward power and fuel prices strengthen
Forward markets remained considerably firmer than Friday’s spot-price correction might suggest. Hungarian Week 44 power rose to €265.50/MWh, Week 45 increased to €271.50/MWh, and November climbed to €255.50/MWh.
The November Hungary-Germany forward spread stood at around €57.50/MWh, while the Week 44 spread remained close to €90/MWh. Fuel prices also strengthened: Austrian CEGH gas rose to €91.77/MWh, Greek gas reached €81.56/MWh, and EU carbon allowances increased to €86.47/tCO₂.
November gas traded at around €91.50/MWh, while November coal stood near $151 a tonne. The divergence between weaker day-ahead power and stronger forward contracts was the central signal from Friday’s session.
Hourly volatility remains a key market feature
Lower demand and stronger solar generation provided temporary relief to spot markets, but the region’s underlying structure remained tight. Southeast Europe continued to rely on several gigawatts of imports, the Germany-Hungary differential remained exceptionally wide, and Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro continued to trade at substantial premiums to western Europe.
The market is increasingly shaped not by a single high or low daily price but by volatility within the day. Solar output compresses prices during midday hours, while declining renewable generation towards evening exposes the region again to gas, coal, imports and transmission constraints.
For traders, generators and storage investors, the widening hourly spread is becoming one of the most important characteristics of the Southeast European power market.