Southeastern Europe is described as economically intertwined and industrially interconnected in relation to the European Union. A combined industrial corridor links Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. The region’s future competitiveness is expected to be reshaped by CBAM and by the development of green power credibility.
The CBAM discussion is framed as a regional issue rather than a national one. The corridor’s position relative to EU markets, its historical industrial capability, and the potential to modernise power systems faster than some non-European competitors are identified as key assets. At the same time, the region shares vulnerabilities including legacy coal dependency in several systems, uneven investment capacity, and policy inconsistency.
Industrial scale, export orientation and energy system interdependence
Within the corridor, Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria are cited as having the greatest structural weight for industrial scale and export orientation. Greece is described as playing a key logistics and energy-transit role. Montenegro and North Macedonia are characterised as smaller economies with strategic positioning through energy trade, infrastructure integration and export partnerships with EU industries.
The source material indicates that CBAM cannot be treated solely as domestic compliance for any single country in the corridor. Supply chains are described as crossing borders across the participating economies. Electricity systems are also described as interacting, with industrial fortunes overlapping between states.
Embedded emissions, contract risk and buyer sourcing outcomes
The material links regional decarbonisation performance to competitiveness under CBAM. If the region does not decarbonise power credibly, it is described as collectively losing competitiveness. High embedded emissions are presented as translating into cost penalties and lost contracts.
European buyers are described as seeking compliant alternatives elsewhere if embedded emissions remain high. The same framework also describes a scenario where successful decarbonisation enables the region to act as a stabilising processing extension of Europe. That outcome is tied to securing downstream segments including steel, aluminium production, copper chains, manufacturing and components.
Cross-border coordination on reporting, PPAs and grid investment
The source material describes an opportunity for regional cooperation that has been rarely achieved historically. It points to harmonised emissions reporting standards across the corridor. It also cites aligned industrial PPAs and coordinated investment in cross-border grid strengthening.
Additional elements listed include shared renewable strategies and joint engagement with European financing institutions. The objective described is positioning the Balkans not as fragmented economies but as a unified industrial zone transitioning into Europe’s next industrial era.
No automatic winners: role of regional leadership in CBAM readiness
CBAM is described as not automatically dividing the region into winners and losers. Instead, it is presented as rewarding those that move seriously, coordinate pragmatically and treat decarbonisation as competitiveness rather than obligation. The material also states that exemptions are not framed as the basis for maintaining relevance.
Serbia’s leadership role within the geography is identified as decisive in anchoring credibility for other states to follow. The source material also notes that hesitation could lead to the region being defined by hesitation rather than opportunity.
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