Electricity.Trade’s system balance analysis says import dependence is the defining structural feature of South-East Europe’s power markets. On 24 February 2026, the region recorded net imports of approximately 1.75 GW despite solid hydro and nuclear output. The same analysis links market pricing dynamics to changes in import availability.
Net import exposure across Serbia, Montenegro and Albania
Serbia, Montenegro, and Albania are identified as particularly exposed within the region. Electricity.Trade notes that prices in these markets often trade at discounts. The discounts are described as reflecting risk premiums rather than indicating surplus conditions.
Electricity.Trade adds that when imports tighten, price changes occur abruptly instead of gradually. This pattern is presented as a direct consequence of the region’s dependence on incoming supply. The analysis focuses on how import movements translate into near-term price adjustments.
Hydro share and its impact on gas marginality
On the analyzed day, hydro contributed approximately 35% of total generation, according to Electricity.Trade. The report also highlights that hydro output variability remains high. When hydro generation declines, gas-fired generation becomes marginal more quickly.
The shift to gas marginality is described as lifting prices across Hungary, Romania, and Greece. Electricity.Trade frames this linkage as operating through changes in generation stack conditions. The regional price response is tied to the timing of hydro reductions.
Implications for modeling volatility and upside risk
Electricity.Trade concludes that modeling SEE power prices without explicitly accounting for import dependence leads to systematic underestimation of volatility and upside risk. The assessment is based on how import dependence interacts with observed market behavior. It emphasizes that the structural role of imports affects both variability and higher-end price outcomes.
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