Power prices rose across Southeast Europe on 10 August as weekday demand returned, wind generation weakened and cross-border capacity constraints tightened regional electricity balances. The changes were reflected in higher day-ahead baseload prices across multiple markets.
Day-ahead baseload prices across the region
On Hungary’s HUPX, the day-ahead baseload price increased by €59.2/MWh to €156.57/MWh, about 61% higher than Sunday. Romania’s day-ahead baseload price followed at €155.75/MWh. Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia and Austria settled within a narrower band of €153–154/MWh.
Serbia recorded the largest daily increase among the surveyed markets, with the SEEPEX day-ahead baseload price rising by €70.5/MWh to €153.32/MWh.
The market spread showed three regional groupings. Hungary together with northern and central Southeast European markets traded around €153–157/MWh, while Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro and North Macedonia were in a middle range of €131–141/MWh. Greece was the lowest at €103.99/MWh, and Italy recorded the highest at €178.89/MWh.
Transmission constraints reflected in cross-border spreads
Differentials between neighbouring markets pointed to transmission congestion and limited cross-border capacity. Hungary traded at a premium of €38.66/MWh versus Germany and €52.57/MWh versus Greece. The gap indicated that lower-cost electricity elsewhere in the region did not fully reach the more expensive central European markets.
Intraday pricing: evening peaks after solar decline
In Hungary, hourly pricing showed a solar-driven duck-curve pattern on HUPX. Prices fell to a daily low of €82.9/MWh around noon before rising sharply to €269.1/MWh at 20:00. The intraday range exceeded €186/MWh.
Hungary’s peak-load average was €142.5/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €170.6/MWh. Strong solar generation suppressed daytime prices, while the evening drop in photovoltaic output coincided with the most constrained part of the day.
Neighbouring markets also saw elevated evening levels. Romania reached €268.6/MWh at 20:00, while Serbia recorded a daily peak of €302/MWh at 21:00. Greece differed, with prices falling to zero during the late morning before rising to €211.5/MWh at 23:00.
The hourly data indicated that evening delivery periods were becoming a key driver of short-term price and imbalance risk relative to daily baseload pricing.
Demand rebound and renewable changes affecting balances
Regional electricity demand was forecast to rise by 4,031 MW from Sunday to 33,432 MW, reflecting a return of commercial and industrial consumption after the weekend.
Solar generation increased by 3,743 MW, while forecast wind output declined by 830 MW. After accounting for changes in solar and wind production, the residual electricity requirement increased by approximately 1,118 MW.
Net imports increased by only 294 MW, leaving around 824 MW of additional demand to be met by thermal, hydro, nuclear and other dispatchable generation.
Import flows: Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria shift positions
Hungary remained particularly dependent on imports from neighbouring systems, recording average net imports of 1,984 MW. Romania moved from net exports of 698 MW on Sunday to net imports of 208 MW on Monday.
Bulgaria more than doubled its net exports to 1,348 MW, including deliveries towards Romania. Across the wider region, imports from Austria and Slovakia reached 2,219 MW, while another 1,056 MW continued flowing towards Italy.
Fuel and carbon markets show limited movement; forward spreads ease
The fuel and carbon complex provided limited evidence of sustained increases in power-generation costs. Austrian CEGH gas was virtually unchanged at €56.60/MWh, EU carbon allowances remained flat at €83.29/t and coal prices recorded only modest gains.
Hungarian forward power prices weakened at the front of the curve. Week 33 fell by €9/MWh to €165.50/MWh, while Week 34 eased slightly to €161/MWh and September contracts moved to €163/MWh.
Despite lower levels, Hungary still traded at premiums versus Germany: €37/MWh for Week 33, €36/MWh for Week 34 and €32/MWh for September. At the calendar horizon, the premium narrowed to €20.50/MWh.
Tightness focus on evening demand and cross-border flows
The market focus remained on evening demand conditions, wind forecast revisions and cross-border flows between Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. Low Danube water levels were cited as an additional uncertainty affecting nuclear and hydropower availability.
The report indicated that improvements in wind generation or cross-border transmission availability could reduce the elevated Hungarian premium. Until then, evening prices across central Southeast Europe were described as vulnerable to further scarcity-driven spikes.