Day-ahead electricity prices for Tuesday delivery fell across most interconnected Southeast European markets, reversing part of Monday’s rally. The move reflected stronger solar availability, cooler temperatures and lower import requirements alongside higher aggregate regional consumption. Price convergence was strongest across Hungary and central European-linked markets, while Serbia, North Macedonia and parts of the southern Balkans remained discounted.
Central European cluster narrows around €165/MWh
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload settled at €164.47/MWh, down €19.4/MWh or about 10.6% from Monday. Romania’s OPCOM cleared at €164.17/MWh, Croatia at €164.23/MWh, Germany at €163.93/MWh, Slovenia at €165.68/MWh and Austria at €166.08/MWh. The six markets averaged approximately €164.76/MWh, with only €2.15/MWh separating the lowest and highest prices.
Cross-border spreads in Hungary were particularly tight. HUPX traded just €0.54/MWh above Germany, €0.30/MWh above Romania and €0.24/MWh above Croatia, while Slovenia carried a premium of slightly more than €1.20/MWh over Hungary.
Southern Balkans remain discounted versus Italy
Further south, baseload pricing diverged from the central cluster. Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded the lowest regional baseload price at €133.02/MWh, up €4.8/MWh from Monday. North Macedonia followed at €135.38/MWh, down almost €16/MWh.
Albania rose to €152.60/MWh, Greece edged up to €153.72/MWh and Montenegro declined to €154.65/MWh. Italy remained the regional premium market at around €172.64/MWh, leaving a €39.6/MWh gap between Italy and Serbia.
Two-tier structure and peak-off-peak inversion
The pricing pattern created a two-tier structure across the region. Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Austria and Germany clustered around €164–166/MWh, while Serbia and North Macedonia traded at deeper discounts.
HUPX traded about €31.45/MWh above Serbia and €29.08/MWh above North Macedonia, compared with premiums of €10.75/MWh over Greece and €11.87/MWh over Albania. Italy maintained an €8.17/MWh premium over Hungary.
Hourly profiles showed inverted peak versus off-peak relationships in several markets, consistent with solar generation during daytime hours. In Hungary, the peak block averaged €153.8/MWh against €175.1/MWh for off-peak hours; Germany showed €153.8/MWh for peak versus €174.1/MWh for off-peak.
Evening scarcity concentrated in specific hours
The inversion widened in southern markets where peak averages fell well below off-peak levels. Greece recorded a peak average of €133.1/MWh versus €174.3/MWh off-peak, producing a spread of more than €41/MWh.
Serbia averaged €115/MWh during peak hours against €151.1/MWh off-peak, while North Macedonia stood at €122.5/MWh and €148.3/MWh respectively; Italy recorded €159.1/MWh for peak and €188.2/MWh for off-peak.
The hourly curves also highlighted separation between solar-heavy afternoon prices and the evening ramp-up period. HUPX reached a low of €131.3/MWh in hour 14 before rising to €208.6/MWh in hour 21. Romania recorded the same maximum of €208.6/MWh in hour 21.
Greece fell as low as €66.3/MWh in hour 15 before reaching €208.6/MWh in hour 21, while Italy peaked at €251.7/MWh in hour 21. Serbia’s SEEPEX minimum was just €56.9/MWh, but it surged to €224.3/MWh in hour 21, exceeding the Hungarian maximum.
Consumption forecast higher as solar output rises
Regional fundamentals were mixed rather than uniformly bearish on Tuesday delivery conditions. Average regional consumption was forecast at 31.495 GW, up 708 MW from Monday, while the regional temperature indicator declined by 1.2°C to 23.3°C.
Hungarian demand fell by 259 MW to 4.48 GW, while Greece added 345 MW and Romania and Bulgaria together increased demand by approximately 920 MW.
Imports decline; northbound flows support central alignment
Renewable availability provided the stronger bearish influence on prompt prices across the region’s interconnected markets. The regional solar forecast increased by 918 MW to around 7.895 GW, while wind availability declined by 179 MW to 1.248 GW.
Net regional imports fell to only 436 MW, down 555 MW from the previous session after imports from the Austria-Slovakia core declined by 462 MW to 948 MW. Exports towards Italy increased to around 513 MW, up from 403 MW.
Bulgaria remained a surplus system with forecast generation of approximately 5.37 GW against consumption of 3.90 GW, leaving net exports of around 1.47 GW on average conditions for Tuesday delivery.
The Bulgaria-Romania base flow was approximately 1.15 GW, with around 385 MW moving towards Serbia and another 160 MW towards North Macedonia.
Bilateral balances: Romania transit; Hungary structurally short
Romania was almost balanced at system level with generation of around 5.59 GW versus consumption of about 5.60 GW, while continuing to operate as a transit market into Hungary.
Average base flows from Romania into Hungary reached approximately 1.19 GW, rising to 2.27 GW during peak hours. With Bulgaria’s surplus supporting northbound movements alongside Romanian flows, central SEE markets stayed closely aligned even as imports from Austria and Slovakia declined.
Hungary remained structurally short with consumption forecast at 4.48 GW against generation of approximately 2.89 GW, implying net imports of around 1.59 GW. The deficit was smaller than Monday’s estimated 2.09 GW.
Borders shape daily averages despite differing system positions
Bulgaria’s surplus contrasted with Serbia’s near-balanced system profile on average conditions for Tuesday delivery; Serbian generation was forecast at around 3.48 GW, compared with consumption of 3.53 GW, leaving an average net import requirement of about 59 MW. Despite that near balance, Serbian electricity traded more than €31/MWh below Hungary.
Northern flows also reflected complex hourly patterns driven by combined imports from Bulgaria and North Macedonia alongside exports on other borders, keeping Serbia’s daily average depressed even though its evening price rose above HUPX.
Ahead curve moves lower; prompt spreads narrow with electricity correction
The prompt power correction showed up in Hungary’s forward curve for contracts covering week-ahead periods into late summer and calendar-year products referenced in the data set provided for Tuesday delivery conditions.
Earnings signals in gas and EU allowances remain firmer than electricity prompts
Tighter hourly risk meets warming outlook into later week days
The weather outlook points to changing temperature conditions across the region during the following days after Tuesday delivery conditions described in the market data set provided here.
The regional temperature forecast excluding Greece rises from 23.