Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices for Wednesday delivery diverged sharply across bidding zones. Serbia recorded the region’s highest wholesale price at €234.67/MWh, while Greece and Albania fell to approximately €139/MWh and €136/MWh, respectively. The shift followed stronger renewable generation forecasts that changed regional power balances and cross-border electricity flows.
The price gap widened even though the region’s overall supply position improved. Forecast net electricity imports across Hungary and Southeast Europe declined by 814 MW to 2,104 MW, while electricity consumption rose to 31,382 MW. The figures pointed to the role of renewable output, transmission capacity and the geographical distribution of generation in shaping wholesale prices.
In the Serbian market, SEEPEX increased by €6.5/MWh from the previous day. Hungary’s HUPX was broadly stable at €223.94/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM rose to €221.67/MWh, Slovenia’s BSP reached €222.15/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €221.87/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN moved up slightly to €209.17/MWh, while North Macedonia’s MEMO declined to €210.38/MWh. Southern markets moved in the opposite direction, with Greek HENEX falling by €85.6/MWh to €138.95/MWh. Albania’s ALPEX dropped by €76.8/MWh to €136.01/MWh, and Bulgaria’s IBEX weakened to €214.50/MWh.
Serbia-Greece spreads widen as southern prices drop
The Serbia–Greece price differential reached €95.72/MWh. Serbia traded almost €99/MWh above Albania, while Hungary’s premium over Greece widened to €84.99/MWh. The change reversed near parity seen one day earlier between Hungary and Greece.
The divergence reflected differences between local supply conditions rather than a uniform response to regional import changes. Cross-border capacity availability, contractual schedules and national generation portfolios influenced how additional generation in one area affected prices elsewhere.
Greek forecast generation lifts exports while peak prices collapse
Greece was identified as the main source of downward pressure on regional prices. Forecast electricity generation increased to 7,002 MW, up from 5,488 MW, while domestic consumption declined to 5,293 MW. As a result, Greece’s projected net electricity exports rose to 1,709 MW, compared with just 81 MW on Tuesday.
Commercial schedules showed average Greek exports of approximately 962 MW to Bulgaria, 395 MW to North Macedonia and 274 MW to Albania. Daytime pricing fell as additional southern supply increased, with Greece’s average peak-period price dropping to €73.8/MWh. Off-peak hours averaged €204.1/MWh, and the minimum hourly price reached zero.
The export flow did not remove price differences with neighbouring markets. Bulgaria continued trading more than €75/MWh above Greece, indicating that cross-border transfers were not sufficient for price convergence in the published day-ahead spreads.
Northern import needs persist despite higher wind and solar forecasts
The regional improvement in electricity availability was supported by renewed renewable generation expectations across Hungary and Southeast Europe. Average solar output was projected to rise by about 1,945 MW to 4,053 MW, while wind generation was expected to increase by another 582 MW to 5,639 MW. Combined wind and solar output was forecast at almost 9.7 GW, lifting regional generation to 29,278 MW from 28,226 MW.
The impact varied by country. Serbia forecast consumption increased to 3,866 MW, while domestic generation was projected at only 2,636 MW. That left an import requirement of 1,230 MW, up from 1,027 MW on Tuesday.
The import share meant cross-border procurement remained important for Serbia’s market exposure to higher-priced peak-hour electricity and transmission availability. Hungary faced a larger requirement as forecast consumption rose to 5,086 MW against domestic generation of 3,062 MW. Net imports were projected at 2,024 MW, about 40% of demand.
Romania shifted in the opposite direction, moving from net imports of 114 MW on Tuesday to projected net exports of 555 MW on Wednesday. Commercial schedules indicated Romanian deliveries to Hungary averaging about 1,009 MW.
BELEN trades around €209 as Montenegro runs modest surplus flows
Montenegro’s market highlighted the role of regional power flows in shaping outcomes across bidding zones. BELEN settled at €209.17/MWh, around €25.50/MWh below Serbia, although Montenegro was forecast to record only a modest net electricity surplus of 36 MW.
The commercial schedule included average exports of approximately 204 MW to Serbia and imports from Italy and Albania projected at about 164 MW and 92 MW respectively.
The flows pointed to potential value for suppliers managing transmission access, hourly price differentials and contractual delivery obligations rather than relying solely on domestic generation levels.
Northern forward curves rise even as Greek spot prices fall
Forward electricity pricing signalled expensive supply conditions despite Wednesday’s sharp decline in southern spot prices. Hungarian week-43 baseload advanced by €20/MWh to €266/MWh and week-44 increased by another €17/MWh to €257/MWh.
The Hungarian November 2026 contract rose by €7.50/MWh in the latest quoted session to reach €244.50/MWh