Southeast Europe day-ahead prices jump as demand rises and wind output weakens

Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe rose sharply on Monday as trading moved from weekend conditions into a higher-demand environment. The shift was accompanied by stronger consumption, weaker wind generation and higher import requirements across most regional exchanges. Prices increased across multiple markets, with Montenegro and Serbia among those posting large gains.

Regional price levels on Monday’s day-ahead market

Hungary recorded the highest day-ahead price in the region at €151.14/MWh. Slovenia and Croatia followed at €145.33/MWh and €143.50/MWh, respectively. Serbia’s SEEPEX market settled at €138.00/MWh, up almost €40/MWh from the previous session, while Montenegro’s BELEN price climbed to €134.70/MWh.

Greece remained the lowest-priced market at €97.12/MWh. That level left Greece more than €50/MWh below Hungary. The move represented one of the strongest day-on-day rallies seen across regional exchanges in recent weeks.

Demand, imports and generation mix behind the move

Regional electricity demand rose to approximately 26.7 GW, up more than 2.2 GW versus Sunday as industrial and commercial consumption returned after the weekend. Generation did not keep pace with demand growth, leading to substantially higher net imports. Total imports increased to 1,359 MW, nearly three times higher than the previous day.

Imports into the wider Southeast European market from Austria and Slovakia exceeded 1.1 GW. Wind output fell to just 1.1 GW, representing only 5% of total generation. Solar generation stayed strong at 5.5 GW, about 23% of the generation mix, but it was not enough to offset weaker wind conditions during evening hours when prices moved higher.

Hydropower remained the largest contributor to regional generation at approximately 26%, supported by stable Danube river flows. Gas-fired generation accounted for 15%, matching nuclear generation, while coal contributed around 14%. With wind support reduced, thermal generation and imports were relied on more during key trading periods.

Serbia’s SEEPEX rebound and cross-border flows

The return of weekday demand pushed Serbia’s SEEPEX prices above weekend levels. The market recorded a maximum hourly price of €225.10/MWh, while the daily minimum stayed positive at €77.10/MWh. The figures pointed to an absence of negative pricing events that are increasingly common in Western and Southern European markets.

The Serbian market continued to draw on a diversified supply structure combining thermal generation, hydropower and regional trading opportunities. Cross-border flow data also showed continued commercial imports supporting domestic consumption and transit activity across the wider Balkan market, including flows from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro.

Montenegro’s BELEN surge and evening scarcity pricing

Montenegro followed a similar pattern as BELEN prices rose by more than €47/MWh compared with Sunday. The market reached an hourly maximum of €263/MWh, reflecting tighter regional balances during evening peak demand periods. Off-peak prices remained elevated at more than €167/MWh.

The off-peak level highlighted the role of evening scarcity pricing as solar production declines after sunset. Alongside rising weekday demand and weaker wind output, this contributed to higher price levels during periods when renewable generation support weakened.

Greece’s lower prices versus Hungary and forward signals for summer

Across the wider region, Greece differed structurally from neighbouring markets due to strong solar penetration that continued to suppress average prices. The Greek market also saw substantial intraday volatility as renewable output fluctuated during the day. The spread between Greek and Hungarian prices widened to approximately €54/MWh.

This gap created cross-border trading opportunities where transmission capacity was available. Forward markets indicated traders were cautious about summer supply conditions, with Hungarian Week 23 power futures at €116.50/MWh and July 2026 contracts assessed at €127/MWh.

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