Day-ahead electricity prices in Southeast Europe rose sharply on September 21 as weekday demand recovered. The move left Hungary holding a substantial premium over most neighbouring markets, even with stronger renewable generation.
HUPX leads higher with regional price gains
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark increased by €46.40/MWh to €188.74/MWh, the highest level among the region’s main interconnected markets. Romania followed at €183.27/MWh, Greece at €181.18/MWh and Bulgaria at €177.47/MWh.
Western Balkans prices also moved higher across multiple exchanges. Albania settled at €176.12/MWh, Montenegro at €163.20/MWh and North Macedonia at €162.16/MWh.
Croatia reached €155.92/MWh, Slovenia was at €148.12/MWh and Serbia’s SEEPEX market closed at €147.71/MWh.
Serbia’s average rises while discounts persist
The Serbian market recorded one of the region’s lowest averages despite an increase of €30.20/MWh from the previous session. SEEPEX traded at a discount of €41.03/MWh to HUPX.
Slovenia’s discount against HUPX stood at €40.61/MWh, while Croatia’s discount was €32.82/MWh.
The regional pattern showed that the price increase was not uniform across all markets. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece formed a higher-priced eastern cluster, while Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia remained considerably cheaper.
Italy premium contrasts with Germany and Austria
Italy remained the most expensive neighbouring market at €224.23/MWh, creating a premium of €35.50/MWh over Hungary. The Italian price also produced wider margins versus Western Balkans benchmarks.
Austria settled at €137.98/MWh, while Germany remained the cheapest major benchmark at €96.60/MWh despite a daily rise of almost €75/MWh.
The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed by €28.40/MWh but stayed exceptionally wide at €92.14/MWh. Hungary’s premium over Greece increased to €7.56/MWh.
Consumption rises and renewables increase less than demand
Regional electricity consumption was forecast to average 29,301 MW, up 4,081 MW from Sunday as industrial and commercial activity resumed. Demand increased by 1,858 MW in Romania and Bulgaria.
Further gains were forecast for Slovenia and Croatia (+1,288 MW), Hungary (+476 MW) and Greece (+458 MW).
The demand recovery outweighed an increase in renewable output in the forecast period. Regional solar generation was expected to rise by 1,474 MW to 5,808 MW, while wind output increased by 356 MW to 2,009 MW.
The combined solar and wind forecast therefore reached about 7.82 GW.
Cross-border flows shift as imports fall
Net imports into Hungary and Southeast Europe declined by 591 MW to 2,095 MW even as consumption increased. Gross inflows from Austria and Slovakia rose slightly to 3,001 MW.
Hungary remained a net importer of around 1,031 MW, while Romania imported approximately 912 MW and Croatia took in 700 MW. Serbia imported 602 MW and Greece imported 113 MW.
Bulgaria stood out as a net exporter of about 1,461 MW.
Italy-linked exports support cross-border trading incentives
Flows towards Italy averaged about 1,039 MW during the period referenced in the data. The Italian market’s premium over prices across the Balkans supported those exports.
The export pull reduced the volume available inside Southeast Europe and strengthened incentives for north-south and east-west cross-border trading.
Forward prices rise alongside spot strength
Forward prices reinforced a near-term bullish signal for Hungary’s market contracts. Hungarian week 39 power rose by €14.50/MWh to €205/MWh and week 40 gained €9/MWh to €197.50/MWh.
The October contract increased by €9.50/MWh to €208/MWh, while the calendar 2026 product advanced by €4/MWh to €153.50/MWh.
Hungary’s forward premium over Germany reached €35/MWh for October compared with €20/MWh for week 40 and €21.50/MWh for calendar 2026.
Gas up, coal down as carbon costs remain high
Austrian CEGH gas traded at €79.95/MWh while October and fourth-quarter gas forwards increased by €3.50/MWh to €81/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €86.89 a tonne.
Coal moved in the opposite direction: the October contract declined by €2 to €136.50 a tonne and the fourth-quarter product fell by €1.50 to €137 a tonne.
The lower coal price was not enough to offset expensive gas, carbon costs and stronger electricity demand in the period described.
Temperature outlook points to cooler conditions
The next weather change may provide some demand support rather than relief across parts of the region referenced in the forecast data. Average temperatures across Hungary and Southeast Europe excluding Greece were expected to fall from around 19.2 degrees Celsius on September 21 to 14.4 degrees on September 22.
Serbia was forecast to drop from 18.8 degrees to 14.2 degrees, while Bulgaria was expected to fall from 19.1 degrees to 13.8 degrees on September 22.
Wide neighbour spreads remain a key feature
The immediate market signal pointed to a return of strong weekday pricing in Southeast Europe after Sunday’s lower levels were referenced in consumption data.
The unusually wide differences between neighbouring exchanges remained a central trading feature described in the dataset provided: Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia continued offering lower-priced supply compared with Hungary and parts of the eastern cluster.
Limited cross-border capacity and Italian export demand were cited as factors preventing those discounts from fully compressing Hungarian and eastern Balkan market prices.