Electricity prices increased across southeastern Europe for Monday, October 5, with weekday demand returning while wind generation was lower. The change widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €76.14/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead average rose €71.90 to €232.76/MWh.
Romania’s OPCOM day-ahead average climbed €67.50 to €228.48/MWh. Albania recorded the largest increase among the markets covered, rising €119.80 to €277.08/MWh. The price moves were linked to regional demand and renewable output forecasts for the day.
Demand forecast and renewable generation changes
Regional electricity consumption was forecast to average 28,706 MW, up 2,758 MW or 10.6% from Sunday. Wind generation was forecast to fall 886 MW to 2,093 MW. Solar output edged down 87 MW to 5,549 MW.
Taken together, the higher demand and lower wind and solar output implied roughly 3,731 MW of additional supply requirements from other generation and imports compared with Sunday. The figures indicate a tighter weekday balance, without showing how each element affected individual market price levels.
Cross-border flows and price divergence
Regional net imports increased 532 MW to 1,636 MW. Inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose 296 MW to 1,326 MW, pointing to greater reliance on neighbouring Central European supply.
Germany moved in the opposite direction, with its day-ahead average falling €11.70 to €156.62/MWh. Austria’s day-ahead average rose €43.20 to €200.33/MWh. Hungary’s spread over Germany shifted from about a €7.40/MWh discount on Sunday to a premium on Monday.
The divergence affected the delivery incentive towards Hungary, depending on cross-border capacity availability, hourly price levels and transmission costs. Daily averages alone do not indicate whether a trade margin could be realised across borders.
Day-ahead prices across regional exchanges
Croatia’s CROPEX increased €59.80 to €219.83/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP gained €58.50 to €217.71/MWh. Both remained below Hungary by €12.93/MWh and €15.05/MWh respectively.
Bulgaria’s IBEX rose €56.10 to €203.78/MWh and Montenegro’s BELEN climbed €51.60 to €209.92/MWh. Serbia saw a smaller increase as SEEPEX rose €14.70 to €169.68/MWh.
The Serbia discount versus neighbours was reflected in price gaps of €63.08/MWh below Hungary and €58.80/MWh below Romania. Serbia also recorded average net imports of 862 MW. Romania’s net imports were 1,407 MW, Croatia’s 1,090 MW, and Hungary’s 627 MW.
Net exports and remaining market levels
Bulgaria and Greece provided counterweight through net exports of 1,445 MW and 992 MW, respectively. Greece’s HENEX rose €38.70 to €149.51/MWh, staying €83.26/MWh below Hungary.
Northern Macedonia had the lowest day-ahead average among the listed markets at €145.40/MWh after a €13.70 increase.
Forward prices and commodity signals
The spot-market jump was not matched by forward indications in the report for Hungary’s power contracts. Week-41 power eased €3.50 to €196/MWh and week-42 fell €4 to €203/MWh.
The November contract remained at €208/MWh, below Monday’s spot average of Hungary’s day-ahead market level reported for October 5.
Austrian gas at CEGH edged up by €0.20 to €75.22/MWh, while Greek gas fell by €2.30 to €69/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €84.42 per tonne.