In Week 24, Türkiye’s electricity market stayed detached from broader European price formation, with an average wholesale price of €22.85/MWh. Serbia averaged €78.22/MWh, while Italy recorded €123.17/MWh at the top of the Southeast European range.
Demand remained firm as prices stayed low
The lower pricing level was not linked to weaker consumption. Electricity demand in Türkiye rose by 3.8% to 6.74 TWh, marking one of the largest absolute demand increases in the region.
The main factor behind the price divergence was reported to be the generation mix rather than load conditions. Variable renewables and changes in hydropower output shaped how wholesale prices evolved during the week.
Renewables surged while hydropower output declined
Variable renewable generation increased by 67.1%, with wind output up by 105.9%. The rebound in renewables helped limit wholesale prices even as demand increased.
Hydropower generation fell by 229 GWh, equivalent to -8.6%, which reduced system flexibility during the week.
Thermal generation shifted toward coal over gas
The gap left by lower hydropower was largely covered by thermal generation. Coal-fired output rose by 260.6 GWh or 21.3%, while gas-fired generation declined by 20.8%.
The reduction in gas output limited gas’s role in marginal price setting, supporting overall low system costs and reinforcing Türkiye’s structurally lower wholesale price level.
Exports increased amid higher renewable availability
Türkiye also improved its external position, with net exports rising by 53.1%. Higher renewable availability alongside low domestic prices supported export potential.
Structural transmission constraints and market fragmentation were cited as factors that continue to limit full convergence with European price zones.
Türkiye remained a separate pricing hub within Southeast Europe
Within Southeast Europe, Türkiye functioned as both a flexibility source and a structurally separate pricing hub. Its combination of large demand, strong renewable growth, coal-based balancing, and consistently low wholesale prices was highlighted as commercially significant.
At the same time, Türkiye was described as only partially integrated into the pricing dynamics affecting neighbouring EU markets, including Italy and the broader SEE power system.