Brent crude stays under $100 as weekly range narrows
In the fourth week of May, Brent crude oil futures (Front Month, ICE) remained below the $100/bbl threshold. The highest settlement in the period was $99.58/bbl on Tuesday, May 26. After that, prices weakened gradually through the rest of the week.
By Friday, May 29, Brent futures dropped to a weekly low of $92.05/bbl. That level represented an 11% decline versus the previous Friday. It also marked the lowest point since April 18, based on data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
US–Iran peace expectations weigh on oil risk premiums
Even with geopolitical tensions continuing, particularly in the Middle East, sentiment was influenced by expectations tied to potential progress toward a US–Iran peace agreement. Those expectations were linked to easing risk premiums during the week. As a result, oil prices moved lower over the same period.
TTF gas futures fluctuate before settling lower on Friday
TTF natural gas futures (ICE, Front Month) also recorded significant day-to-day changes during the week. The weekly minimum was reached on Monday, May 25, at €45.43/MWh. A rebound followed on Tuesday, May 26, when prices peaked at €47.47/MWh.
After the peak, prices stayed relatively stable for the remainder of the week and remained below €47/MWh. Trading ended on Friday, May 29, with a settlement of €46.00/MWh. This corresponded to a 5.5% decline compared with the previous Friday.
Storage constraints and demand offset agreement-driven pressure
Gas price moves reflected opposing influences throughout the week. Expectations of a potential US–Iran agreement placed downward pressure on prices. At the same time, limited European storage levels and higher-temperature-driven demand helped prevent a sharper fall.
EEX December 2026 contract rises after Monday low
CO₂ emission allowance futures (EEX, December 2026 contract) followed a different trajectory than oil and gas. Prices reached their weekly low on Monday, May 25, at €76.77/t. From there, they increased steadily across subsequent sessions.
By Friday, May 29, the contract peaked at €80.63/t. That was a 4.8% rise versus the previous Friday and the highest level since February 10.
Carbon prices gain while oil and gas remain under pressure
AleaSoft reports that oil and gas markets faced downward pressure linked to easing geopolitical risk expectations and mixed demand signals. In contrast, carbon prices rose over the week with steady upward momentum. The divergence between commodity and emissions markets was evident across late-May settlements.