During the fourth week of May, most major European electricity markets saw an early phase of price increases, followed by a gradual easing toward the end of the week. In several cases, sessions that started with upward pressure later saw prices retreat, leading to lower weekly averages across the majority of markets.
Weekly performance: Italy, Spain, Portugal and France rise
Italy, Spain, Portugal and France were the main exceptions, with weekly price increases of 6.2%, 25%, 25% and 27%, respectively. The Nordic market recorded the largest decline, with prices down 36%. Among the remaining analyzed markets, weekly declines ranged from 1.1% in Great Britain to 10% in Germany.
Weekly average levels below €95/MWh in most markets
Weekly average prices stayed below €95/MWh in most European markets during the period. The United Kingdom and Italy posted higher averages at €121.97/MWh and €123.58/MWh, respectively. The Nordic region recorded the lowest weekly average at €48.37/MWh.
Elsewhere, prices generally ranged from €60.70/MWh in Spain and Portugal up to €94.90/MWh in Germany. Daily trading showed further dispersion around these weekly averages.
Daily lows under €35/MWh and highest session averages
Several markets, including Spain, France, the Nordics and Portugal, recorded at least one session with prices below €35/MWh. The lowest daily average was registered in the Nordic market on May 27, when prices fell to €21.97/MWh.
By contrast, British and Italian prices remained above €100/MWh throughout the week. Additional high-price episodes were recorded in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands on May 28 and 29.
The highest daily average occurred in Italy on May 27 at €134.53/MWh.
Drivers: gas pricing, solar output, wind generation and demand
Price moves during the week reflected multiple interacting factors across regions. Lower gas prices and stronger solar generation pushed prices downward in many markets.
In some areas, weaker demand and higher wind output reinforced that direction, particularly in Germany. At the same time, reduced wind generation in France, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula combined with higher electricity demand to support price increases in those markets.
June outlook: expected early increases with regional exceptions
Forecasts indicate that most major European markets may see price increases in the first week of June. Lower solar generation is expected to be a key driver of that shift, alongside higher demand in some cases.
France and Italy could instead experience price declines linked to weaker consumption and stronger wind production. For Italy specifically, higher solar output is also cited as supportive for lower prices.
AleaSoft reports that gas prices are expected to remain a major factor shaping European electricity market dynamics over the period ahead.