Front-month Brent crude futures on ICE increased sharply during the third week of July, reaching the highest level since 12 June. The move coincided with intensifying geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over potential energy supply disruptions. The contract’s weekly range began with a settlement at $83.30/bbl on Monday, 13 July.
Brent then climbed through the rest of the week, reaching a weekly settlement high of $88.10/bbl on Friday, 17 July. The Friday settlement was 16% higher than the previous Friday’s level, based on analysis by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The increase was linked to a higher risk premium embedded in crude oil prices.
The rally in crude oil prices was driven by escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran. It also followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, described as a critical route for global energy shipments. These developments affected expectations for energy flows during the period.
TTF front-month natural gas moves higher
TTF front-month natural gas futures on ICE followed an upward path during the same week. The contract settled at a weekly low of €51.36/MWh on Monday, 13 July, and rose in each subsequent trading session. By Friday, 17 July, it reached a weekly settlement high.
TTF futures settled at €57.44/MWh on Friday, 17 July, which was the highest level since 21 March. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the Friday settlement was 18% above the previous Friday’s level. The week’s change reflected continued upward pressure in European gas benchmarks.
European natural gas prices were supported by concerns over LNG supply from the Persian Gulf. Those concerns were accompanied by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran during the week. Together, they formed the main upward catalyst cited for TTF.
EEX December 2026 carbon allowance futures fluctuate
EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 reference contract on the EEX showed significant volatility during the third week of July. Prices reached a weekly settlement high of €81.39/t on Tuesday, 14 July. They then retreated during the final sessions of the week.
The contract fell to a weekly settlement low of €79.12/t on Friday, 17 July. Despite dropping from the weekly high, that settlement was only 0.1% below the previous Friday’s level, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.