South-east European day-ahead electricity prices fell sharply on Wednesday as cooler weather and higher forecast renewable output eased the regional balance. The decline was broad but uneven across markets. HUPX settled at €122.30/MWh, down €15.10/MWh from the previous session. Prices in Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and North Macedonia dropped by more than €20/MWh, while Italy and Montenegro remained high-price zones.
Renewable output and demand shift the physical balance
Forecast solar generation was set at 7,424 MW, up 570 MW, while wind generation increased by 717 MW to 1,922 MW. The combined renewable gain of 1,287 MW was close to four times the 353 MW increase in forecast demand. Total consumption reached 33,678 MW. The additional load was absorbed by wind and solar generation rather than by higher imports or thermal output.
Net regional imports fell by 582 MW, or about 26%, to 1,627 MW. Imports from Austria and Slovakia declined by 580 MW to 2,996 MW, while northern inflows remained a key element of the regional balance. At the same time, around 1,277 MW was scheduled to flow from the region towards Italy. The Italian day-ahead price remained at €170.21/MWh.
Cross-border flows keep Italy and Montenegro decoupled
The simultaneous presence of net importing in South-east Europe and substantial exports to Italy reflected Wednesday’s flow pattern. Electricity entered through Austria and Slovakia, moved through Hungary and the northern Balkans, and continued partly towards Italy. This routing supported prices in Austria, Slovenia and Croatia while limiting how far lower-cost supply in Serbia, Bulgaria and Albania could pull regional prices down. Italy’s higher pricing continued to shape export incentives.
The corridor effects were visible in the pricing cluster around Hungary. HUPX settled at €122.30/MWh, with Romania clearing at €121.68/MWh, only €0.62/MWh below Hungary. Croatia settled at €122.92/MWh, just €0.62/MWh above Hungary. Slovenia cleared at €127.01/MWh, a €4.71/MWh premium to HUPX.
Austria was higher again at €134.16/MWh, or €11.86/MWh above Hungary. The German benchmark fell to €100.43/MWh, leaving a Hungary–Germany spread of €21.87/MWh. The spread narrowed by €2.50/MWh but remained wide enough to preserve an economic incentive for eastward flows when capacity was available. The persistence of the Hungarian premium came despite almost 3 GW of combined imports from Austria and Slovakia.
Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia see the largest declines; Montenegro stays elevated
The eastern South-east European markets recorded the biggest daily drops. Bulgaria fell by €23.70/MWh to €114.51/MWh, while Greece dropped by €26.30/MWh to €115.88/MWh. The two markets cleared just €1.37/MWh apart, with Bulgaria maintaining its role as a regional exporter. Bulgaria’s average net export position was approximately 706 MW, with commercial schedules showing deliveries towards Serbia, Romania, North Macedonia and Greece.
Romania recorded net imports of approximately 678 MW, while its price remained closely coupled with Hungary at €121.68/MWh. Commercial flows from Bulgaria and changing schedules across the Romanian–Hungarian border helped limit a larger Romanian price premium relative to HUPX. Serbia posted one of the weakest settlements as SEEPEX fell by €24.50/MWh to €106.99/MWh. That left Serbia €15.31/MWh below Hungary, €15.93/MWh below Croatia and €40.27/MWh below Montenegro.
Despite the weak settlement, Serbia remained a net importer by approximately 338 MW. Albania was the only surveyed market to rise on the day as ALPEX gained €1.70/MWh to €104.52/MWh, making it the cheapest day-ahead market in the group. North Macedonia fell by €32.40/MWh to €108.25/MWh. Southern Balkan prices cleared between approximately €104.50/MWh and €108.30/MWh.
Northern corridor pricing contrasts with Montenegro’s BELEN premium; intraday pattern shows flexibility constraints
The main exception was Montenegro, where BELEN settled at €147.26/MWh. That was only €1.40/MWh below the previous day and almost €25/MWh above HUPX at €122.30/MWh on Wednesday. Montenegro’s premium over Albania reached €42.74/MWh, while its premium over Serbia was €40.27/MWh.
The commercial flow data indicated Montenegro receiving electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania and Kosovo while prices stayed elevated at BELEN’s settlement level of €147.26/MWh.
Solar-hour price weakness followed by evening recovery; generation mix supports dispatchable capacity demand later in the day
The Italian market remained the highest priced at €170.21/MWh, down €7.10/MWh on the day compared with Tuesday’s level referenced in the note.
The Italian premium reached €47.91/MWh over Hungary and €47.29/MWh over Croatia, with more than €63/MWh over Serbia.
The note also reported intraday volatility compared with daily averages across HUPX, OPCOM and BSP markets.
Tightness in forward contracts persists despite lower spot levels; fuel costs rise while carbon stays near unchanged levels
The forward curve continued to reflect renewed tightness for Hungarian power products after Wednesday’s spot correction.
The note cited Hungarian Week 31 power falling by €2.50/MWh to €131.00/MWh, while Week 32 rose by €1.00/MWh to €148.50/MWh.
The average 2026 Hungarian contract held at €146.50/MWh, while Calendar 2026 increased by €1.00/MWh to €126.00/MWh.
>Weather outlook points to softer trading during solar hours; cross-border basis remains a key risk factor for spreads between zones