Southeast European electricity markets entered Thursday with a stronger renewable generation outlook and lower regional import dependence, but the improvement in physical supply conditions did not restore price convergence. In the day-ahead market, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia settled in the €130–134/MWh range. Serbia and Bulgaria formed a lower middle tier, while Greece and Albania traded below €100/MWh. Montenegro and Italy maintained significant premiums.
Demand, solar and wind forecasts shift regional supply balance
Forecast electricity demand across Hungary and Southeast Europe increased by 1,111 MW, or about 3.5%, to 32,972 MW, as average temperatures rose by 1.4°C to 25.8°C. Renewable availability improved at the same time, with expected solar generation up by 508 MW to 7,767 MW. Wind generation rose by 767 MW to 3,207 MW. The combined renewable gain of 1,275 MW exceeded demand growth and reduced the region’s net import requirement by 442 MW, bringing it down to 1,410 MW.
The change was more evident in physical flows than in day-ahead price formation. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia stayed elevated at 2,140 MW, though they fell by 447 MW day on day. Exports from Southeast Europe towards Italy increased slightly to 888 MW. The region remained exposed to both central European imports from the north and Italian demand from the west.
Hungary leads price formation with tight evening conditions
Hungary was one of the key price drivers as HUPX settled at €132.14/MWh, almost unchanged from Wednesday. Hungarian consumption rose to 4,672 MW, while domestic generation was forecast at only 3,174 MW, leaving a net deficit of 1,498 MW. The deficit widened from 1,208 MW, keeping Hungary reliant on imports despite improved regional renewable availability.
The Hungarian hourly curve showed a larger spread than the daily average. Prices dropped to €12.20/MWh in hour 14 when solar output was strongest before rising to €296.10/MWh in hour 20. The daily minimum-to-maximum gap was nearly €284/MWh. The pattern indicated that additional photovoltaic capacity suppressed midday prices while evening system adequacy remained constrained.
Hungary also traded above Germany on the day-ahead curve. Hungary maintained a premium of €10.82/MWh over Germany, which settled at €121.33/MWh, while Austria remained slightly higher at €134.13/MWh. Slovenia matched HUPX at €132.19/MWh, and Croatia settled at €130.96/MWh. Nuclear output across monitored markets declined by 552 MW to 4,466 MW, following constraints linked to low Danube water levels and reduced production at major nuclear facilities.
Northern cluster extends into Romania and Croatia-linked flows
Romania reflected similar structural pressure as OPCOM settled at €130.15/MWh, only €1.99/MWh below Hungary. Romanian consumption was forecast to rise by 172 MW to 5,574 MW, while generation was projected at 5,075 MW. That left Romania with a supply deficit of 499 MW. Peak-period commercial flows remained strong towards Hungary, including average Romanian-to-Hungarian peak transfers of 1,224 MW.
Bulgaria supplied part of Romania’s balancing needs through cross-border imports. Bulgarian-to-Romanian flows were approximately 1,641 MW on a baseload basis. Bulgaria continued operating as a surplus market with forecast generation of xx2.
Bulgaria’s IBEX increased by x3x4
Bulgaria continued operating as one of Southeast Europe’s main surplus electricity markets. Forecast generation of x5.
Bulgaria continued operating as one of Southeast Europe’s main surplus electricity markets. Forecast generation of 4,998 MW exceeded consumption of 3,840 MW, creating a net export position of 1,158 MW. Nevertheless, IBEX increased by €9.80/MWh to €112.37/MWh. Bulgaria remained €19.77/MWh below Hungary but narrowed part of the previous session’s discount as exports towards Romania absorbed additional domestic surplus production.
Bulgaria’s solar-driven curve contrasts with Greece’s low prices
Bulgaria’s hourly curve stayed relatively weak during solar production hours. Prices reached a minimum of €12.10/MWh in hour 15 while the evening peak was limited to €170.80/MWh. The nuclear fleet and expanding solar capacity supported a more stable supply base than markets farther north. Bulgaria’s ability to export more than 1.6 GW towards Romania during parts of the day helped balance Romanian and Hungarian systems.
Greece recorded one of the lowest liquid-market prices in Southeast Europe as HENEX declined by €3.30/MWh to €92.52/MWh. That widened Greece’s discount to Hungary to €39.62/MWh while Greek peakload prices averaged €42.70/MWh. Midday prices reached zero in hour 11 during the day-ahead session window described in the report. Greece also moved into a forecast net export position of 1,576 MW compared with 1,015 MW on Wednesday.
The lower Greek price aligned with cooler weather expectations as average temperatures were expected to decline by 2°C to 26.8°C. That reduced cooling demand while renewable and thermal availability remained sufficient for the period assessed. The gap between Greece and Hungary created a south-to-north trading signal at day-ahead level but transmission constraints and incomplete regional market coupling prevented full monetisation of arbitrage opportunities.
SERBIA falls sharply; Montenegro rises toward Italian benchmark levels
Serbia recorded the largest day-on-day price decline among established regional exchanges as SEEPEX fell by €40.70/MWh to €104.77/MWh. Serbia priced €27.37/MWh below Hungary on the day-ahead settlement described here. Electricity consumption was forecast to rise sharply to 3,859 MW while generation recovered to 3,317 MW. The resulting deficit narrowed from 865 MW to 543 MW because generation growth exceeded demand growth.
The Serbian hourly profile was less extreme than Hungary’s as SEEPEX reached €30.10/MWh in hour 12 and peaked at €208/MWh in hour 20. Serbia continued importing electricity from neighbouring systems including about 342 MW from North Macedonia, 253 MW from Bulgaria and 85 MW from Romania on average while exporting around 156 MW towards Montenegro. The report attributed the SEEPEX decline to improved domestic availability, stronger regional renewable generation and cheaper imports rather than a structural return to surplus.
Montenegro moved in the opposite direction with BELEN increasing by €10.90/MWh to €151.71/MWh, becoming the most expensive exchange in Southeast Europe for the session described here and placing it €19.57/MWh above Hungary on that basis. Consumption rose to 469 MW while forecast generation reached only 337 MW for a deficit of 132 MW. BELEN recorded a minimum price of €53/MWh in hour 9 and a maximum of €250/MWh in hour 21; off-peak prices averaged €180.30/MWh.
The Montenegrin market continued receiving power from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania and Kosovo while transferring about 514 MW towards Italy through the submarine interconnector.
Croatia tightness persists as Italy sets external reference prices; forward curves warn on Hungary
The Italian national price increased by €5.30/MWh to €182.43/MWh on Thursday’s assessment window, creating a premium of €50.29/MWh over Hungary for that product set out in the report data points provided here. Northern Italy settled at €180.20/MWh while southern Italy reached €184.60/MWh; the national minimum remained exceptionally high at €150.10/MWh throughout the day described in the source figures.
The Italian premium supported westward flows from Slovenia and Montenegro and limited surplus Balkan volumes available to ease pressure in Hungary and Croatia during this period described here.
Croatia remained a significant deficit market with consumption of 2,429 MW against generation of only 1,155 MW for Thursday’s session window described here; its net import requirement widened to 1,274 MW even though integration with Slovenia and Hungary kept CROPEX close to the northern regional cluster.
The forward market indicated tighter conditions for Hungary during early August week products as Hungarian Week 32 rose by €9/MWh to €212/MWh while Week 33 increased by €11.50/MWh to €157.50/MWh based on Thursday’s forward pricing data points provided here.
The Week 32 premium over Germany widened to €84/MWh compared with Hungary trading at a €32.50/MWh discount versus Italy for the same product set out in those forward figures.
This pricing structure showed Hungary trading above Germany and Italy in some contracts during that week window described here; it was reinforced by movements across wider energy benchmarks including Austrian CEGH gas rising to €60.83/MWh, EU carbon allowances increasing to €82.02/t and API2 coal advancing to $122.50/t.
A stronger renewable generation outlook reduced immediate import demand but did not remove scarcity reflected in evening prices and forward markets within Thursday’s assessment window described here.
The main trading opportunity highlighted in the provided data points remained tied to widening gaps between lower-priced southern markets and higher-priced Hungarian and Italian demand centres; capturing that value depended on available cross-border transmission capacity according to the source facts included here.