The Southeast European electricity market opened Friday with a split between the tightly interconnected Hungary–Romania–Slovenia–Croatia zone and lower-priced southern Balkan markets. The key driver was the deteriorating availability outlook for Paks, linked to exceptionally low Danube water levels that raised the possibility of a complete shutdown. The supply risk was reflected in spot prices, cross-border flows and forward contracts, with the largest move showing on the Hungarian week-ahead curve.
On day-ahead trading, Hungary settled at €157.81/MWh, up €25.70/MWh from Thursday. Romania cleared at €155.33/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia reached €157.65/MWh and €156.49/MWh, respectively. The four markets traded within a range of just over €2/MWh, consistent with tightening Hungarian supply, higher import needs and expensive thermal replacement generation.
Germany strengthened to €148.59/MWh, while Hungary held a premium of €9.22/MWh. Austria cleared at €155.61/MWh, only €2.20/MWh below HUPX. The relatively narrow spreads to western markets indicated continued linkage to the Central European system despite falling domestic generation in Hungary and larger import volumes.
Hungary’s net import requirement rises as Paks output falls
Hungary’s average domestic generation was forecast at 2,667 MW, down from 3,209 MW on Thursday and more than 20% below Monday’s level. Electricity consumption increased to 4,871 MW, lifting the estimated net import requirement to about 2,203 MW versus 1,599 MW a day earlier. Off-peak periods showed the highest reliance on imports, with an average net deficit of 3,285 MW.
The vulnerability was visible in Thursday’s generation mix. Output from Paks averaged 961 MW, compared with around 1,830–1,850 MW during the previous weekend. On 30 July, nuclear supplied about 31% of Hungarian electricity output while solar accounted for 51%. With solar falling after sunset and reduced nuclear availability removing stable baseload support into evening demand, system exposure increased.
On HUPX, the hourly pattern matched these conditions. The daily minimum stayed unusually high at €83.30/MWh during hour 16, while the evening maximum reached €268.60/MWh during hour 20. Peak-hour prices averaged €136.00/MWh and off-peak averaged €179.60/MWh. The off-peak premium reflected expensive evening and overnight hours alongside daytime price suppression from strong solar output.
Romania’s day-ahead price rises alongside higher imports from Bulgaria
Romania saw a similar day-ahead move on OPCOM as prices rose by €25.20/MWh to €155.33/MWh. Prices ranged from €83.30/MWh to €271.20/MWh during the evening peak session. Romania’s net position weakened as imports increased from 376 MW to 480 MW despite domestic generation rising slightly to 5,228 MW. Electricity consumption increased to 5,708 MW.
Cross-border flows showed Romania covering part of Hungary’s supply deficit. Average exports from Romania to Hungary increased to 1,605 MW and reached 2,301 MW during peak hours. Romania also imported around 2,088 MW from Bulgaria, shifting Bulgarian surplus generation northwards into the Hungarian deficit area through the Bulgaria–Romania–Hungary corridor.
Bulgaria exports more but trades at a discount on IBEX
Bulgaria increased generation from 4,516 MW to 5,242 MW, supporting net exports of 1,379 MW despite higher domestic consumption. Demand rose by 531 MW to 3,863 MW while exports averaged 2,088 MW to Romania and around 297 MW to Serbia. These flows were partly offset by imports of about 1,101 MW from Greece.
Despite stronger exports, Bulgaria’s IBEX market cleared below the northern cluster at €124.75/MWh. The Bulgarian market traded at a discount of €33.06/MWh versus HUPX and ranged from €40/MWh to €180.70/MWh. The wider spread pointed to renewable availability and transmission congestion limiting full price convergence with Romania and Hungary.
Serbia remains cheaper with peak-focused import exposure
Serbia remained among the lower-priced markets in the region even as demand increased. The SEEPEX day-ahead price rose by €8.30/MWh to €113.07/MWh while keeping a discount of €44.74/MWh versus Hungary. Serbian electricity consumption increased by 327 MW (about 9%) to 3,940 MW and forecast generation rose from 3,053 MW to 3,400 MW.
The increase in forecast generation reduced Serbia’s net import requirement slightly from 560 MW to 540 MW. Import exposure concentrated during peak periods as net imports averaged 906 MW during peak hours compared with 174 MW outside peak hours. Scheduled inflows were largest from North Macedonia (374 MW), Bulgaria (297 MW), Hungary (115 MW) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (41 MW). Serbia exported electricity to Montenegro and Croatia with average flows of 121 MW and 105 MW.
Southern Balkan prices diverge: Greece cheaper while Albania rises
On SEEPEX hourly pricing, the daily minimum reached €60.10/MWh during hour 13 while the evening maximum climbed to €250.10/MWh during hour 20. The low daily average masked intraday volatility as Serbia traded more than €44/MWh below Hungary on average but approached similar scarcity levels in the evening across Hungary, Romania and Montenegro. This pattern aligned with higher value for short-duration flexibility in storage and hydro balancing.
Greece declined by €2.60/MWh to €89.96/MWh on its day-ahead market and recorded a daily discount of €67.85/MWh versus HUPX. Greek generation increased to 9,008 MW against consumption of 7,222 MW supporting net exports of 1,787 MW; exports included about 1,101 MW to Bulgaria plus deliveries of 469 MW to North Macedonia and 200 MW to Albania.
The HENEX market recorded a zero-price hour during hour 16 while its daily maximum reached only €154.80/MWh. Strong daytime renewable availability together with high export volumes kept Greece structurally cheaper; limited interconnection capacity prevented full relief of supply pressure in Hungary and central Southeast Europe.
Albania moved higher by €70.10/MWh to €158.09/MWh after settling at €87.99/MWh on Thursday; Montenegro declined by €5.30/MWh to €146.43/MWh but kept off-peak prices elevated at €181.20/MWh with a maximum reaching €250/MWh during hour 21.
Montenegro’s consumption increased to 461 MW while generation reached only 326 MW leaving net imports of 135 MW; North Macedonia remained second-cheapest after Greece as it fell by €12.40/MWh to €105.31/MWh with a modest net export position of 18 MW.
Regional system balances shift; Italy posts highest day-ahead price
The combined SEE and Hungarian electricity system consumed 33,397 MW on Friday’s outlook period versus Thursday’s level of +1,129 MW (about +3.5%). Forecast generation reached 32,080 MW leaving net imports of 1,317 MW across the combined area.
Imports into Hungary and Slovenia averaged 1,858 MW from Austria and Slovakia combined while exports from Southeast Europe towards Italy declined to 765 MW compared with earlier conditions cited in the dataset.
The reduced export flow toward Italy coincided with Italy recording the highest national day-ahead price at €186.23/MWh.
Generation mix changes; forward prices show larger adequacy risk signal
The confirmed Thursday generation data described the supply transition behind Friday’s market conditions across wind, nuclear and thermal fleets used in regional balances for that day-to-day comparison period cited in the dataset.
Regional wind generation increased by 746 MW to 3,191 MW while nuclear output declined by 323 MW to 4,143 MW; solar decreased by 376 MW to 7,331. Coal output rose by 355 MW to 5,821, while gas-fired generation fell slightly to 4,597.
A published renewable forecast for 31 July contained a spreadsheet error; aggregate generation totals and country balances were still usable but detailed renewable technology splits were not fully validated based on that dataset note.
Paks-linked risk lifts Hungarian week-ahead premiums; gas and carbon move
The forward electricity market carried a stronger risk signal than spot pricing in Hungary’s curve segment cited in the dataset summary for week contracts.
Hungarian Week 32 prices jumped by €70/MWh in one session to €282/MWh, creating a premium of €155/MWh over Germany. The same contract showed a premium of €105.50/MWh over Italy; Week 33 increased to €184.50/MWh.
Hungarian August power rose to €184 50 /MWh as well gaining €20 50 /MWh on the day and nearly 18% over seven sessions.