Serbia’s SEEPEX averaged €85.73/MWh in Week 25, up 9.6% week-on-week. Electricity demand increased from 554.08 GWh to 565.84 GWh. Over the same period, Serbia shifted from a net importer position of 107 GWh in Week 24 to a net exporter position of 21 GWh.
Regional price corridor and Serbia’s weekly trade shift
The price increase occurred despite Serbia not being short in physical weekly terms. Prices in neighbouring markets were higher, with Hungary at €109.16/MWh, Romania at €104.84/MWh, and Croatia at €102.36/MWh. This created a higher-price corridor around Serbia.
The SEEPEX spread relative to those neighbours supported export incentives as Serbia moved closer to regional scarcity pricing. The market also reflected broader Southeast Europe conditions, including warmer weather and higher consumption. Lower wind and evening scarcity were also cited as factors affecting the hourly profile.
Domestic generation mix and implications for trade balance
Domestic generation developments were described as more constructive than the weekly price movement alone suggested. Serbian hydro generation recovered strongly, rising by 42.9%. Thermal output declined due to weaker coal generation.
This change in the generation mix helped improve Serbia’s net trade position during Week 25. Even with the improved domestic fundamentals, SEEPEX was still reported to follow the regional tightening cycle affecting the wider market.
Trading focus on spreads and industrial procurement needs
For traders, the reported opportunity was framed around spreads rather than outright price levels. SEEPEX remained below Hungary, Romania and Croatia, but above Türkiye and close to Greece and Bulgaria.
For industrial buyers, the week highlighted the need for structured procurement approaches. A buyer assessing only an average price was noted as potentially underestimating exposure to evening hours and regional coupling. The brief pointed to fixed-price supply, PPAs, balancing clauses and hourly allocation as elements gaining importance as volatility concentrates in specific blocks of the day.
Renewables revenue considerations under changing value patterns
For renewable developers, the brief indicated that Serbia’s market still supports a credible price environment while requiring attention to capture risk. It noted that solar-heavy production would face weaker midday value.
By contrast, wind, storage and flexible offtake were cited as factors that can improve project economics within the reported conditions for Week 25.