SEE power markets entered Week 25 with higher prices in most Central and Western Balkan locations, despite a softer gas backdrop. The regional average was driven by demand up 3.1% to 16.34 TWh, alongside weaker hydro, lower wind and a larger call on thermal generation. Thermal output increased 19.4% to 5.31 TWh. Gas-fired generation added 771 GWh, up 32.3% week-on-week.
Price board split across SEE markets
The price board separated into four groups during the week. Italy remained the premium market at €127.69/MWh, up 3.7%, with support from lower hydro, weaker wind, higher thermal dispatch and continued import dependence. Hungary, Romania and Croatia formed a high-price cluster at €109.16/MWh, €104.84/MWh and €102.36/MWh, respectively.
Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria traded in a lower band around €85–88/MWh. Türkiye stayed detached at €16.66/MWh. The distribution reflected different regional balances rather than a single uniform pricing level across all markets.
Evening ramp shapes intraday pricing
The strongest trading feature was the evening ramp pattern. Solar output rose by 8.1%, while wind fell by 4.4%. This combination corresponded with softer midday prices and tighter evening prices.
The shift in generation profiles increased the relevance of flexible resources and cross-border arrangements for delivery products. Storage and cross-border capacity were highlighted as factors linked to the observed price shape.
Cross-border flows and border capacity influence spreads
SEE net imports fell 20.4% to 1.03 TWh, but Italy still imported 1.12 TWhnet. Greece and Bulgaria increased export positions during the week, while Serbia moved into a modest net export position. Croatia increased import dependency compared with the prior period.
The resulting spread dynamics were linked to physical availability and border capacity rather than fuel prices alone.
Gas market softness alongside higher power prices
Gas markets moved lower over the same period. TTF futures averaged €41.76/MWh, down 14.8%, while LNG inflows into Greece and Italy increased.
The decline in gas reduced fuel-cost pressure, but power prices still rose because the system required more dispatchable generation to meet demand and cover weaker renewable output.
Forward prices for 24 June show scarcity pricing active
The forward signal remained firm into the next trading days. Day-ahead prices for 24 June rose sharply across SEE, ranging from €106.81/MWh in Albania and Kosovo to €202.95/MWh in Romania.
The market entered the following week with scarcity pricing still active.