Day-ahead prices in Southeast Europe fell across multiple trading areas following the previous day’s heatwave-driven surge. HUPX decreased by €98.2/MWh to €136.93/MWh, while SEEPEX fell by €89.5/MWh to €137.41/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM settled at €147.86/MWh, and Bulgaria/Greece (IBEX/HENEX) reached €145.51/MWh. Slovenia recorded the lowest regional level at €118.55/MWh, and Montenegro remained the regional peak at €153.84/MWh.
Germany traded significantly lower at €73.31/MWh, leaving a HU–DE spread of €63.62/MWh. The gap indicates that SEE–Hungary pricing remained separated from core European levels despite the day-on-day correction.
Demand reset and changing renewable output
The price decline was linked to a post-heatwave demand reset. Regional consumption averaged 33,865 MW, down 1,252 MW day-on-day, while net imports rose to 3,779 MW, up 562 MW. Inflows through the Austria/Slovakia → Hungary/Slovenia corridor increased to 4,166 MW, up 1,069 MW. Solar output rose to 7,514 MW, up 967 MW, while wind fell to 1,351 MW, down 259 MW.
The generation mix supported a summer pattern in which midday supply strengthened while evening tightness persisted. Solar increases coincided with weaker wind output during the session.
Intraday price swings across HUPX and SEEPEX
The hourly price profile showed pronounced peaks and troughs. HUPX recorded a daily low of €71/MWh at hour 14 and a peak of €250/MWh at hour 20. SEEPEX ranged from €80/MWh at hour 12 to €281/MWh at hour 20. Germany and Austria posted weaker midday pricing, with Germany at -€3/MWh and Austria at -€4.9/MWh at hour 14.
The structure also reflected a compressed midday pricing environment followed by an evening ramp tied to residual demand. HUPX peak prices averaged only €124.6/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €149.3/MWh.
Cross-border flows show surplus and deficit split
Country-level flows pointed to a split between exporters and importers across the region. Bulgaria remained the largest exporter at 920 MW, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina at 519 MW. Greece moved close to balance with just 59 MW net export, reversing the prior day’s direction.
The deficit side included Romania importing 1,980 MW, followed by Hungary (1,709 MW) and Serbia (619 MW). Other net imports were Croatia (387 MW), Montenegro (296 MW), Slovenia (197 MW) and North Macedonia (63 MW). Romania was identified as the key stress point where reduced domestic output met high regional demand.
Pricing convergence in Serbia; scarcity premium in Montenegro
SERBIA remained closely linked with Hungary in both price and physical positions. SEEPEX settled at €137.41/MWh, only €0.48/MWh above HUPX.
(No additional text.) Serbian consumption fell to 3,643 MW while generation stood at 3,025 MW, producing a net import position of 619 MW.
The session also showed that Montenegro carried the clearest scarcity premium in Southeast Europe. BELEN settled at €153.84/MWh, the highest price in the region’s markets and €16.91/MWh above HUPX.
Montenegro recorded consumption of 434 MW against generation of only 138 MW, resulting in a 296 MW deficit driven by limited domestic supply.
Forward curve softens; gas and carbon ease slightly
The forward market partially eased but did not remove the regional risk premium. Hungarian Week 28 power fell to €107.50/MWh (down €8.5/MWh) and Week 29 declined to €141/MWh (down €6.5/MWh). The HU–DE forward spread stayed at €16/MWh for Week 28 and €32/MWh for Week 29.
Softer commodity pricing included CEGH gas at €44.65/MWh, Greek gas at €45/MWh, and EUA carbon at €79.54/t. These changes were described as insufficient to fully explain the spot correction relative to weather normalization, lower residual load, and stronger import availability.
Key indicators for upcoming sessions remain volatility-linked hours and flows
The trading signal was characterized as mixed rather than bearish in the session summary provided for July 2. The extreme heatwave premium had unwound, but elevated volatility persisted across SEE markets including Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Montenegro and the Greece–Bulgaria corridor.
The indicators highlighted for subsequent sessions included hour 20 price spikes, core AT/SK → HU/SI flows, Romanian import dependency, Montenegro’s structural deficit, and Serbia’s near-parity with HUPX.