South-east European day-ahead electricity prices moved sharply lower across most interconnected markets for Thursday delivery, with a forecast rise in renewable generation easing the regional supply-demand balance. German prices fell heavily, while the decline was not uniform across the system. Serbia and Albania moved against the broader trend, and a strengthening Italian market widened the north-south price divide while keeping cross-border capacity towards Italy heavily utilised.
Day-ahead price moves across interconnected markets
On HUPX, Hungarian baseload fell by €12.36/MWh from Wednesday to €171.64/MWh. Romania followed at €174.58/MWh, down by around €11.9/MWh, while Bulgaria declined by €13/MWh to €172.36/MWh and Greece lost approximately €11.2/MWh to €173.25/MWh. Slovenia recorded an even sharper fall to €167.08/MWh, with Croatia dropping to €168.53/MWh, Montenegro to €165.92/MWh and North Macedonia to €167.45/MWh.
Serbia was among the few exceptions to the regional decline, with SEEPEX rising by €5.2/MWh to €168.02/MWh. Albania posted the strongest upward movement in the region, as ALPEX jumped by more than €30/MWh to €184.06/MWh. Albania traded at a €12.42/MWh premium to Hungary, while Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia remained below the HUPX price.
Germany lower as Italy strengthens
The clearest external signal came from Germany, where day-ahead power dropped to around €125.54/MWh. Hungary traded at a €46.10/MWh premium to Germany, widening the spread by approximately €15.7/MWh versus the previous day. At the same time, Italian prices strengthened further.
The South zone reached around €205.52/MWh, about €33.88/MWh above HUPX, while Italy’s national day-ahead price was around €204/MWh. The pricing pattern produced a three-way structure: Germany at the low-price end, central and south-east European markets mostly between €165/MWh and €175/MWh, and Italy above €200/MWh. Albania moved closer to the Italian level after its sharp daily increase.
Renewable forecast lifts supply while demand rises modestly
The main downward driver across central and south-east Europe was higher forecast renewable generation. Regional solar output was forecast at 8.223 GW, up by 1.325 GW from the previous day, while wind generation was expected to rise by another 251 MW to 1.711 GW.
Electricity demand was projected to increase by only 288 MW to 34.028 GW, limiting offsetting demand growth against renewable availability. Aggregate HU+SEE generation was estimated at around 31.671 GW, approximately 503 MW higher than the previous day, while net imports fell by 214 MW to 2.357 GW.
Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia remained high at around 3.312 GW, but exports from the region towards Italy increased to 1.402 GW from 1.130 GW.
Daytime-to-evening price inversion across the region
Stronger solar generation combined with continued thermal constraints contributed to an inversion between daytime and evening pricing. Additional renewable output pushed down prices during the traditional daytime peak period, while higher-cost thermal generation and flexibility needs supported stronger evening and overnight prices.
Hungary illustrated the pattern clearly: although HUPX baseload averaged €171.64/MWh, the conventional peak block settled at only €147.9/MWh versus an off-peak price of €195.3/MWh. Hourly prices fell to €82.2/MWh at hour 12 before climbing sharply to €251.2/MWh at hour 21.
A similar structure appeared across south-east Europe, with Romania’s peak block averaging around €146.8/MWh compared with off-peak hours at €202.4/MWh. Greece recorded a peak of €146.2/MWh against off-peak at €200.3/MWh, while Bulgaria stood at €144.4/MWh versus off-peak at €200.3/MWh.
Intraday spreads in Serbia and Albania
Croatia also showed a comparable daytime-to-evening structure, with peak prices at €148.7/MWh and off-peak prices at €188.3/MWh.
Serbia displayed a strong intraday spread despite its higher baseload settlement on SEEPEX: peak power averaged €153.1/MWh while off-peak electricity traded at €183/MWh.
The Serbian market reached a daily low of €114/MWh in hour 11 before rising to €250/MWh in hour 20.
Albania remained tighter than most neighbouring markets, with its lowest hourly price still at €136/MWh and its daily maximum reaching €265.5/MWh in hour 21.
Domestic balance shifts drive Serbia and Albania divergence
Serbia’s divergence from neighbouring markets was linked partly to its domestic balance outlook for Thursday delivery. Serbian electricity consumption was forecast to decline to 3.664 GW from 3.813 GW, while generation was expected to fall more sharply to 3.071 GW from 3.388 GW.
As a result, average net imports increased to around 593 MW from 425 MW a day earlier.
Commercial schedules reflected that dependence on neighbouring systems: Serbia was importing approximately 230 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 253 MW from Croatia, 142 MW from Hungary, 133 MW from Romania and 79 MW from Bulgaria.
Scheduled flows also continued towards Montenegro and, in smaller volumes, North Macedonia; this tighter domestic position helped support SEEPEX even as most neighbouring markets moved lower.
Albania tightens supply-demand position
Albania experienced a further tightening of its domestic position for Thursday delivery as generation declined from around 1.061 GW to 1.000 GW while demand stayed close to 1.16 GW.
This increased Albania’s net import requirement to approximately 160 MW from 107 MW previously.
With limited domestic thermal flexibility in a relatively small market, lower generation alongside higher import dependence pushed ALPEX significantly above other western Balkans pricing levels; its €184.06/MWh baseload was around €16/MWh above Serbia and more than €18/MWh above Montenegro.
Italy remains key export destination via multiple corridors
Cross-border schedules pointed to Italy’s influence on south-east European price formation for Thursday delivery as regional exports were scheduled at an average of around 1.402 GW. Flows were largely routed through three corridors: approximately 585 MW from Montenegro, 414 MW from Greece and 403 MW from Slovenia.
The Italian national market traded close to €204/MWh, with the South zone above €205/MWh, supporting exports towards Italy where transmission capacity was available.
Transit flows through Montenegro, Slovenia and Hungary
Montenegro remained a net importer of around 149 MW, but commercial schedules showed approximately 585 MW flowing towards Italy.
This indicated that Montenegro imported electricity from neighbouring markets while maintaining substantial exports across the Adriatic as part of its role as a transit and trading hub.
Slovenia showed a similar scheduling pattern: it was a net importer of approximately 297 MW, while scheduling around 403 MW of exports to Italy and 724 MW to Croatia.
Austrian-and-Hungarian-supported imports backed those export schedules into Slovenia.
Northern transit role for Hungary alongside shifting hourly balances
Hungary acted as a pivotal northern transit market as domestic consumption declined from 4.840 GW to 4.601 GW while generation increased from 3.768 GW to 3.933 GW. Net imports fell from 1.072 GW to 668 MW.