Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices fell sharply on Tuesday as stronger solar generation eased daytime supply. Evening prices stayed elevated despite the daytime decline, with weaker wind output, rising consumption and expensive gas contributing to tighter conditions later in the day.
In Hungary, the HUPX baseload contract dropped by €61.00/MWh to €189.96/MWh, reversing part of Monday’s spike. Romania traded almost level at €189.58/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia settled at €188.53/MWh and €188.59/MWh, respectively.
The close alignment indicated strong price coupling across the central regional corridor. Hungary’s premium to Germany narrowed to €9.89/MWh, while Austria traded just €0.15/MWh below HUPX.
Regional price levels across SEE markets
Prices were lower further south in Tuesday’s session. Serbia’s SEEPEX fell €16.70/MWh to €182.72/MWh, a €7.25/MWh discount to Hungary.
Montenegro settled at €178.44/MWh, Bulgaria at €176.06/MWh and Greece at a regional low of €170.25/MWh. Albania remained the most expensive SEE market at €204.00/MWh.
North Macedonia diverged from the broader decline, rising €5.60/MWh to €185.21/MWh.
Italy premium and intraday pattern
Italy’s national price reached €223.68/MWh, keeping a premium of almost €34/MWh over Hungary and more than €41/MWh over Serbia. The spread supported average SEE exports of 759 MW towards Italy.
Forecasts pointed to higher solar output, with regional solar generation expected to rise by 655 MW to 6,250 MW, pushing afternoon prices lower. HUPX fell to a daily minimum of €61.10/MWh in hour 15, with similar lows in Romania, Croatia and Slovenia.
Prices rebounded as solar generation declined later in the day. Hungary and Romania climbed above €305/MWh in hour 20, while Serbia reached €315.10/MWh and Albania peaked at €337/MWh.
Peak vs off-peak spreads and balancing flows
The widening gap between afternoon and evening prices pushed Hungarian peakload down to €164.90/MWh, below its €215.10/MWh off-peak contract. Serbia showed a similar pattern, with peakload at €174.70/MWh and off-peak power at €190.80/MWh.
The profile supported the commercial case for shifting supply into the evening ramp using batteries, demand response and flexible thermal or hydropower capacity.
Combined Hungary and SEE consumption was forecast to rise by 1,006 MW to 29,983 MW, while generation slipped to 28,810 MW. The region moved from net exports of 140 MW on Monday to net imports of 1,173 MW.
Imports, wind outlook and exporter positions
Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia averaged 1,699 MW. Regional wind output was forecast to fall by 512 MW to 1,798 MW, leaving higher solar generation unable to cover the evening deficit.
Bulgaria remained the largest exporter at 1,165 MW, down from Monday’s 2,092 MW level. Bosnia and Herzegovina increased exports to 434 MW, while Serbia imported 715 MW and Croatia imported 468 MW.
Forward market stability amid spot correction
Forward prices stayed firm despite the spot correction on Tuesday. Hungarian October baseload rose by €9/MWh to €205/MWh, creating a €32.50/MWh premium to Germany.
Week 39 increased to €191.50/MWh while week 40 advanced to €198/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas gained €2.80/MWh to €84.74/MWh as EU carbon allowances rose by €2.50 to €87.99 per tonne, maintaining pressure on thermal generation costs.
The Tuesday decline removed much of Monday’s exceptional scarcity premium while the underlying balance remained tight. The region still required stronger central European imports as higher Italian prices pulled electricity westward.
For traders, the key signal was the widening intraday spread rather than the daily average: cheaper solar-heavy afternoons followed by another sharp evening climb.
With Hungarian October power still priced at €205/MWh, the forward market indicated expectations that Tuesday’s relief could be temporary.