Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply on Friday, with Serbia becoming the region’s most expensive market. Weaker wind generation, higher cross-border import requirements and persistent supply constraints pushed wholesale prices towards €280/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX market climbed €24.8/MWh to €277.57/MWh, the highest daily baseload average among the monitored markets.
Hungary’s HUPX exchange increased €16.4/MWh to €269.23/MWh. Romania reached €261.92/MWh, while Bulgaria rose to €256.57/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN market increased to €239.78/MWh, extending upward pressure across the Western Balkans.
Consumption and wind output fall as imports rise
The price increases occurred even as regional electricity consumption was forecast to decline by 428 MW to 31,810 MW. Forecast wind generation fell by 1,662 MW to 2,909 MW, while net imports increased by 1,023 MW to 3,385 MW. The divergence between weaker consumption and higher prices pointed to renewable generation availability and cross-border market conditions as immediate drivers.
The strongest percentage increase was recorded in Greece, where HENEX jumped €45.6/MWh to €206.18/MWh, remaining the cheapest monitored market. North Macedonia rose €29.3/MWh to €251.64/MWh, Bulgaria gained €23.3/MWh, and Albania increased €7.5/MWh to €257.08/MWh.
Premiums versus Germany narrow as intraday peaks intensify
The regional rally came alongside continued price separation from Western Europe. Germany traded at €210.67/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €58.57/MWh premium. Hungary’s premium over Greece narrowed to €63.05/MWh from about €92.3/MWh, following a sharp Greek price recovery.
The hourly profile showed stronger scarcity signals than daily averages suggested. Serbia’s maximum hourly price reached €405.10/MWh at hour 19, while Hungary peaked at €382.30/MWh in the same hour. Albania approached €400/MWh, recording a maximum of €399/MWh, while Romania and Bulgaria reached €356.90/MWh and €354.70/MWh.
The daily averages also masked differences in intraday price shapes. Serbia’s off-peak average stood at €284.60/MWh, above its peak-period average of €270.50/MWh. Hungary showed a similar pattern, with off-peak power averaging
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Zonal patterns diverge, including zero-price hours in Greece
The intraday structure differed across markets, with Greece showing a contrasting pattern. Its minimum hourly price fell to zero around midday, while its maximum rose to €321.10/MWh. The presence of zero-price solar hours alongside elevated prices at other times highlighted the role of flexible resources and shifting generation profiles.
Deteriorating generation balance drives import needs across borders
The physical market balance worsened as forecast electricity production declined by €1,450 MW€? The forecast electricity production declined by 1,450 MW to 28,425 MW, with wind losses only partly offset by a 233 MW increase in solar generation.
This coincided with changes in cross-border schedules at the Italian borders. The monitored region moved from net exports of approximately 79 MW to Italy on Thursday to net imports of 679 MW on Friday, a swing of 758 MW. At the same time, combined imports through the Austrian and Slovak corridors increased by only 83 MW to 2,766 MW.
Bulgaria recorded one of the largest shifts in its electricity balance. Forecast consumption increased by 628 MW to 4,361 MW, while domestic production fell by 248 MW to 4,245 MW. Bulgaria moved from being a net exporter of 760 MW on Thursday to a net importer of 116 MW on Friday.
Romania’s net import requirement increased from 641 MW to 818 MW as domestic generation declined against broadly unchanged demand. Greece remained a major exporter, but its surplus contracted from 1,657 MW to 1,176 MW as generation fell.
Nominations into Serbia rise despite overall import deficit complexity
A national balance explained part of Serbia’s elevated pricing on Friday. Forecast consumption fell from 3,969 MW to 3,753 MW, while domestic generation declined from 2,942 MW to 2,693 MW. The resulting net import requirement increased slightly to approximately 1,061 MW, equivalent to more than 28% of forecast consumption.
Selling schedules showed deliveries into Serbia from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro. Bosnia and Herzegovina scheduled an average 435 MW towards Serbia, Bulgaria 304 MW, North Macedonia 317 MW and Montenegro 165 MW.
Serbia also maintained average scheduled exports of 406 MW towards Hungary despite its overall import deficit. Scheduled cross-border flows reflected contractual obligations and transmission arrangements rather than simply differences between national daily-average spot prices.
The pricing spreads reflected differing commercial conditions across counterparties: Serbia’s premium was €8.34/MWh over Hungary and €37.79/MWh over Montenegro. For traders these differences were linked to transmission capacity constraints and nomination risks tied to hourly price variations.
BELEN-linked pricing contrasts with Montenegro’s near-balanced physical position
Montenegro presented a contrasting physical balance relative to Serbia’s import needs on Friday. Domestic generation was forecast at 348 MW against consumption of 330 MW, leaving a net export position of approximately 18 MW.
The country remained connected through regional trading flows nonetheless. Commercial schedules included average imports of 268 MW from Italy alongside exports of 165 MW towards Serbia and 72 MW towards Kosovo.
Forward contracts point to continued near-term strength in Hungary and Germany spreads remain visible
The forward electricity market reinforced expectations for elevated near-term pricing levels. Hungarian week 43 baseload power was quoted at €269.50/MWh, week 44 stood at €260/MWh and November delivery was at €243.50/MWh.
The Hungarian week 43 contract carried a premium of €75.50/MWh over Germany, narrowing to €67/MWh for week 44 and €50.50/MWh for November. Between October 7 and October 15, Hungary’s week 43 contract gained approximately 28.95%, compared with increases of 15.82% in Germany and 12.26% in Italy.
A longer-dated view showed a more moderate premium structure: Hungary’s calendar 2027 baseload contract was quoted at €168.50/MWh versus Germany at €145/MWh for the same period.