Electricity prices across southeastern Europe declined for September 30 delivery as forecasts pointed to stronger wind and solar generation alongside lower demand. The change reduced the region’s projected net import requirement. Italy’s pricing moved less than neighbouring markets, widening its premium relative to them.
Spot prices across HUPX, OPCOM and IBEX
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price fell by €24.50 to €145.63/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM dropped €25.60 to €144.31/MWh. Bulgaria recorded the largest absolute decline among the markets covered, with IBEX down €28 to €133.80/MWh.
Wind, solar and demand outlook for the delivery day
The supply outlook improved as forecast average wind generation rose by 1,519 MW to 6,206 MW. Solar output was also higher, increasing by 939 MW to 5,904 MW. Combined, wind and solar were expected to provide 12,110 MW, equivalent to about 42% of forecast regional consumption.
Forecast demand fell by 353 MW to 29,112 MW. With lower consumption and stronger renewable production, projected net imports dropped to just 88 MW from 725 MW a day earlier. Despite the near-balanced regional position, cross-border flows remained substantial on individual borders.
Cross-border flows and Italy’s pricing differential
Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces were forecast at 1,003 MW, down 486 MW. Net exports towards Italy increased by 124 MW to 1,326 MW. Italy’s price slipped only €1.10 to €201.96/MWh.
The Italian level left it €56.33/MWh above Hungary, compared with roughly €32.93/MWh a day earlier. The widening differential increased the price incentive for deliveries towards Italy, while realised trading margins depend on transmission access and delivery costs.
Diverging prices across southeastern Europe markets
Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the cheapest market covered at €102.94/MWh, down €7.10. The Serbian price was also €42.69/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia’s MEMO fell €24.10 to €108.08/MWh, while Greece’s HENEX declined €12.40 to €109.57/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN dropped €15 to €115.92/MWh, keeping a discount of about €29.71/MWh versus Hungary. Albania’s ALPEX, however, eased only €1.10 to €146.47/MWh, placing it close to the Hungarian price and above several southern neighbours.
Central European alignment and forward market levels in Hungary
Slovenia and Croatia tracked closer to higher-priced central European markets, with Slovenia’s BSP falling €24.90 to €149.11/MWh and Croatia’s CROPEX declining €24.80 to €147.98/MWh. Austria settled at €155.21/MWh and Germany at €140.75/MWh.
Hungary’s premium over Germany edged up to €4.88/MWh despite both markets registering substantial declines. Romania traded just €1.32/MWh below Hungary, indicating tighter alignment than discounts seen in Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia.
Forward quotations weakened but remained above the latest Hungarian spot level: week 41 power fell by €7 to €195/MWh, week 42 declined by €6 to €199/MWh, and October dropped by €7 to €197.50/MWh.
The October quotation stayed about €51.87/MWh above the September 30 spot level, indicating that improved renewable balance had not removed the premium in near-term delivery contracts.
Hungary’s week 41 forward spread over Germany widened by €11 to €39/MWh, while the October spread edged up to €40/MWh.
Gas prices and EU carbon allowance movement
Austrian CEGH gas fell by €3.10 to €71.64/MWh, while Greece’s quotation declined by €1.90 to €59.60/MWh. October gas dropped by €3.50 to €71/MWh; the fourth-quarter contract held at €74.50/MWh.
EU carbon allowances eased by €0.20 to reach €85.95/t.
The day’s figures reflected a stronger renewable balance and reduced aggregate import dependence in the region as supply approached demand levels more closely than earlier forecasts indicated.