Day-ahead electricity prices in Serbia increased by €47.20/MWh to €150.18/MWh for October 1. Prices moved higher in Hungary, Romania and parts of the northern Balkan market, while Albania and Montenegro declined. The regional divergence widened trading spreads even as forecasts pointed to higher renewable generation and slightly weaker overall consumption.
Germany recorded a sharper rise, and the move reversed Hungary’s premium over the German market. The change coincided with lower forecast electricity imports into the region from Austria and Slovakia. Hungary’s day-ahead price also shifted relative to Germany as a result.
Central and northern Balkan day-ahead price moves
On the HUPX, Hungary’s day-ahead power settled at €163.72/MWh, up €18.10/MWh. On OPCOM, Romania’s price rose €20.20/MWh to €164.48/MWh. The difference between Hungary and Romania was €0.76/MWh.
Slovenia climbed €21.70/MWh to €170.77/MWh, while Croatia gained €21.40/MWh to €169.38/MWh. Both markets stayed above Hungary, with premiums of about €7/MWh for Slovenia and about €6/MWh for Croatia.
Serbia recorded the largest increase among the southeast European exchanges covered in the assessment. Despite the jump, Serbia kept a €13.54/MWh discount versus Hungary, while its projected net imports averaged 735 MW. Hungary and Croatia also remained net importers, at 995 MW and 896 MW respectively.
Southern market declines and cross-border spread signals
The southern markets followed a different direction from the north. Albania’s ALPEX fell €48.50/MWh to €97.94/MWh, which was the lowest price among the surveyed markets. Montenegro’s BELEN eased €1.70/MWh to €114.22/MWh.
Greece rose by €1.60/MWh to €111.17/MWh, while Bulgaria gained €1.10/MWh to €134.86/MWh. North Macedonia increased by €7.80/MWh to €115.91/MWh.
The daily average spreads showed Serbia trading about €52.55/MWh above Greece and nearly €66/MWh above Albania on a comparable basis across the day-ahead sessions assessed. The spreads indicated potential value for cross-border trading, but executable margins depend on hourly prices, transmission capacity and delivery costs.
Northern exporter forecasts and regional demand balance
Greece and Bulgaria were projected to remain substantial net exporters, averaging 1,826 MW and 1,340 MW respectively. Their lower prices alongside exports pointed to an uneven distribution of supply across the region in the forecast period.
Across Hungary and southeast Europe, the aggregate balance shifted from 226 MW of net imports on September 30 to 248 MW of net exports for October 1. Forecast consumption slipped by 80 MW to 29,382 MW.
Solar generation was forecast to rise by 1,983 MW to 6,759 MW, offsetting a 383 MW decline in wind output. Wind output was forecast at 4,937 MW, leaving combined wind and solar production up by about 1,600 MW.
Germany impact, forward prices and fuel-cost inputs
The clearest external change came from Germany, where electricity rose €54.40/MWh to €195.18/MWh. Hungary moved from a premium of roughly €4.90/MWh on the previous day to a €31.46/MWh discount relative to Germany.
At the same time, forecast imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia fell by 686 MW to 479 MW. Italy remained the highest-priced surveyed market at €209.95/MWh, with net flows towards Italy averaging 1,381 MW.
Forward prices strengthened alongside spot moves: Hungarian week 41 power rose €3.50/MWh to €198.50/MWh, while week 42 increased by €7/MWh to €206/MWh. November power rose to €198.50/MWh, around €35/MWh above the October 1 spot average.
Gas costs added pressure in adjacent benchmarks, with Austrian CEGH rising to €73.73/MWh and Greek gas reaching €66.45/MWh. Carbon allowances eased to €85.09 per tonne.
Serbia exposure despite higher renewable forecasts
The immediate exposure for buyers remained concentrated in Serbia and northern markets based on the assessment period described. Higher forecast renewable output improved the regional balance but did not prevent a daily increase of €47.20/MWh in Serbian electricity costs for October 1.