Day-ahead electricity prices for delivery on Sept. 29 moved in opposite directions across Southeast Europe, with increases in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and parts of the northern Balkans, while Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and North Macedonia remained at lower levels. The split highlighted differences between markets and pointed to tighter conditions along north-south and east-west trading corridors. The regional pattern was reflected in both base-load averages and hourly minimums.
Price moves across HUPX, SEEPEX and southern Balkan markets
Hungary’s HUPX base price rose by €8.9/MWh to €170.11/MWh. Romania increased by €15.6/MWh to €169.92/MWh, while Bulgaria gained €15.7/MWh to €161.82/MWh. Croatia reached €172.76/MWh and Slovenia settled at €174.01/MWh.
In contrast, Serbia’s SEEPEX slipped to €110.06/MWh. Greece fell to €121.97/MWh, Montenegro moved down to €130.96/MWh and North Macedonia dropped to €132.21/MWh. The range left Serbia trading close to €60/MWh below Hungary and Greece about €48/MWh under HUPX.
The market also showed smaller but persistent gaps within the discounted group, with Montenegro and North Macedonia around €38-39/MWh cheaper than Hungary. Albania averaged €147.58/MWh, about €23 below Hungary. At the high end of the region, Italy averaged about €203/MWh, roughly €93 above Serbia and about €81 above Greece.
Hungary-Germany spread shifts alongside a change in physical flows
The largest bilateral shift was between Hungary and Germany, where German day-ahead prices fell to around €165.83/MWh. Hungary traded about €4.3/MWh above Germany on Sept. 29, after being roughly €34/MWh below Germany a day earlier, implying a swing of nearly €39/MWh in the bilateral spread. Austria was at €180.55/MWh, while Italy remained the highest-priced major market at about €203/MWh.
The move coincided with a change in the regional physical balance for combined Hungary and SEE consumption, which rose to 29,105 MW, up around 740 MW day on day. The region shifted from net exports of 1,288 MW on Sept. 28 to net imports of 555 MW on Sept. 29, a swing of more than 1.8 GW. Imports from the Austria-Slovakia/core direction reached about 1,367 MW, reversing the previous day’s 501 MW flow in the opposite direction.
Hungary remained a net importer of roughly 1,007 MW compared with 731 MW a day earlier, while domestic consumption increased to 4,516 MW against generation of around 3,509 MW. Commercial flows showed strong imports from Slovakia and Romania, while Hungary continued exporting towards Croatia and Slovenia.
Northern and eastern balance tightens as Romanian and Bulgarian surpluses shrink
Romania stayed a net exporter but its surplus fell sharply to about 187 MW from 866 MW on Monday. Bulgaria’s exports declined to 571 MW from 1,212 MW previously reported for Monday’s level. These reductions tightened the northern and eastern SEE balance as regional demand recovered from lower weekend levels.
The price structure did not fully mirror the physical shift across all markets, with Serbia and Greece still trading at much lower levels than Hungary despite the broader move towards imports in the region.
Renewables-linked compression in Greece; volatility persists in Serbia
Greece decreased by €13.1/MWh to €121.97/MWh even as it exported more than 1 GW on average. Its hourly profile showed renewable-driven compression: the Greek peak-period average was only €55.7/MWh versus an off-peak average of €188.2/MWh, while the minimum hourly price reached zero. The pattern indicated strong daytime renewable availability followed by a steep evening recovery.
Serbia was also lower on a baseload basis, with SEEPEX averaging €110.1/MWh and peak power at only €103.1/MWh alongside a daily minimum of €9.8/MWh. Despite that low daily average, the maximum reached €240.1/MWh, indicating continued volatility within the day-ahead structure.
Montenegro fell by more than €34/MWh to €131/MWh and North Macedonia dropped by about €18/MWh to €132.2/MWh on Sept. 29.
Timing differences point to multiple drivers beyond one renewable factor
The timing of low-price hours differed between Greece and Serbia: Greece’s deepest compression occurred during the solar-heavy daytime period, while Serbia’s minimum was recorded during early hours. This separation suggested that the Balkan discount was not tied to a single renewable timing effect across markets.
The different outcomes were associated with local supply and hourly demand conditions as well as cross-border capacity and transmission constraints affecting how power moved between zones during specific hours.
Italy remains the main outlet; forward curves show firmness in Hungary
Italy continued to act as a key high-price outlet for surplus electricity from Southeast Europe, with regional exports towards Italy averaging about 1,245 MW while Italy traded around €203/MWh on Sept. 29. Montenegro’s interconnector flows reflected this pull: it exported about 532 MW towards Italy on a baseload basis even though its overall system remained a small net importer.
The same flow pattern indicated Montenegro drew electricity from neighboring Balkan systems while sending power west through the submarine link toward Italy.
Forward markets also pointed to continued firmness in Hungary: Hungarian Week 41 rose to around €202/MWh, Week 42 increased to about €205/MWh and October settled near €204.50/MWh. At the same time, forward Hungary-Germany premiums narrowed.
Commodity inputs remained elevated for pricing support signals used by market participants: CEGH gas was around €74.75/MWh and EUA carbon allowances were near €86.17/t.
Spread remains wide between Serbia and Italy despite regional rebounds
The Sept. 29 session showed less uniform tightening across Southeast Europe than a fragmented structure where transmission capacity influenced relative value between markets more strongly than average regional conditions alone might suggest.
A spread persisted from roughly €110/MWh in Serbia to around €203/MWh in Italy, indicating cross-border value opportunities alongside continuing limitations tied to congestion and transfer capacity between zones.