Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rebounded strongly for Sept. 28 as weekday demand recovered and cross-border flows shifted toward higher-priced western markets. Serbia remained a major outlier, with prices almost €50/MWh below Hungary.
Price levels across SEE markets
On HUPX, Hungary’s base price rose by €47.3/MWh to €161.19/MWh. Romania increased to €154.34/MWh, Bulgaria to €146.11/MWh and Greece to €135.11/MWh.
Croatia settled at €166.14/MWh, Montenegro at €165.13/MWh and Slovenia at €168.95/MWh. North Macedonia posted €150.41/MWh and Albania €129.40/MWh.
Serbia recorded the region’s lowest average at just €111.69/MWh, little changed from Sunday. The Serbian level was around €49.5/MWh below HUPX, and the unusually wide discount persisted even though Serbia remained a net electricity importer.
Western market strength and consumption recovery
Western markets were substantially stronger during the same session, with Germany trading around €195.40/MWh. Austria was at €174.51/MWh and Italy about €203.55/MWh.
Regional consumption increased by about 3.65 GW from Sunday to reach 28.83 GW on Sept. 28. This helped restore the weekday premium after the weekend price collapse.
Cross-border flows shift westward
The combined Hungary and SEE system moved from an almost balanced position on Sunday to net exports averaging around 1.39 GW. About 1.26 GW flowed toward Italy, while roughly 547 MW moved toward Austria and Slovakia.
Bulgaria exported an average 1.33 GW, Romania about 754 MW, Greece 1.35 GW and Bosnia and Herzegovina around 530 MW. Hungary remained a net importer of about 821 MW, Croatia imported around 859 MW and Serbia about 394 MW.
Eastern transit role for Romania and Hungary’s redistribution
Romania emerged as an important east-to-west transit source, with flows toward Hungary reaching around 1.92 GW on average. Bulgaria simultaneously supplied approximately 1.15 GW to Romania and almost 390 MW to Serbia.
Hungary then redistributed part of those imports west and south, exporting around 851 MW toward Austria, 679 MW toward Slovenia and 515 MW toward Croatia. The pattern indicated that Hungary functioned as a major transit hub linking lower-priced eastern generation with Central European demand.
Serbia’s discount versus neighbouring pricing
Serbia remained the most important pricing anomaly in the region’s day-ahead outcomes. SEEPEX traded around €34/MWh below Bulgaria, almost €43/MWh below Romania and close to €50/MWh below Hungary.
Despite Serbia importing electricity overall, the wide gap persisted relative to neighbouring markets. The formation of day-ahead prices was linked to interconnector constraints, hourly commercial schedules and congestion affecting whether cheaper electricity could reach premium areas.
Hourly spreads highlight flexibility value
The hourly curves showed a larger spread between individual hours than between many national daily averages. On HUPX, prices fell to around €5.6/MWh during the midday renewable period before rising to €342.2/MWh at hour 20.
Serbia ranged from around €20/MWh during the low-price period to €276.6/MWh in the evening. Greece briefly reached €0/MWh around midday before recovering toward an evening maximum of about €271/MWh.
Strong solar production compressed midday prices, while falling renewable output in the evening restored premiums for flexible resources including hydro, gas generation, storage and imports.
Trading signals for the Sept. 28 session
For traders, Sept. 28 reflected two signals: weekday demand recovery alongside stronger westbound exports raised average prices across most of SEE compared with earlier conditions in the week’s cycle.
The session also showed that trading value depended on capturing widening spreads between countries and between oversupplied midday hours and evening flexibility premiums rather than only exposure to a regional base price.