Eastern Southeast European day-ahead power prices remained near €300/MWh on 30 October as weaker wind and solar output drove a sharp increase in imports. Day-ahead prices across the region eased from Thursday’s extreme levels, but supply remained tight despite slightly lower demand. Regional net imports rose by 1,316 MW day on day to an average of 4,995 MW, while forecast consumption fell by 88 MW to 34,209 MW.
Forecast solar output declined by 696 MW to 2,342 MW, and wind generation fell by almost 2 GW to 3,301 MW. Combined wind and solar availability was therefore around 2.68 GW lower than a day earlier. The drop in renewable supply, rather than a change in consumption, was the main driver of Friday’s tighter balance.
The region consequently drew more power from Central Europe. Average flows from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-SEE region increased by 1,045 MW to 4,438 MW, while imports from Italy rose by 88 MW to 580 MW. Cross-border reliance grew even as regional demand remained broadly unchanged.
Eastern markets remain above €300/MWh
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead base price fell by €18.5/MWh to €306.05/MWh. It remained well above Germany’s €268.62/MWh, Austria’s €275.23/MWh and Italy’s €274.04/MWh. The HUPX-Germany spread widened by €27.7/MWh to €37.43/MWh because German prices fell more quickly.
Eastern SEE prices remained closely grouped, with Romania at €303.56/MWh, Bulgaria at €302.20/MWh, Serbia at €303.29/MWh and Albania at €302.02/MWh. Serbia’s price was €26.8/MWh below Thursday’s level. Albania recorded the largest correction, falling by €64.8/MWh.
Further south, North Macedonia had the region’s highest price at €321.66/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €313.98/MWh. Montenegro was among the few markets to rise, gaining €1.2/MWh on the day. Greece also moved against the broader regional decline: HENEX rose by €49/MWh to €287.75/MWh, narrowing Hungary’s premium over Greece to €18.30/MWh from a spread almost €68/MWh wider a day earlier. Greece nevertheless remained materially cheaper than the eastern Balkan group.
Evening peaks expose supply constraints
Hourly prices showed that scarcity remained most pronounced in the evening. On SEEPEX, Serbia’s €303.3/MWh base price included a €331.3/MWh peak average and a daily high of €416.3/MWh at H18. Montenegro reached €407.2/MWh at H18, while North Macedonia climbed to €460/MWh in the same hour.
Hungary’s balance remained tight despite a fall in consumption. Average demand declined to 5,169 MW from 5,418 MW, but domestic generation also slipped to 3,141 MW from 3,504 MW, leaving net imports averaging about 2,028 MW. Hungary exported significant volumes towards Romania while importing power from Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring markets.
Fuel prices continued to support a high underlying power-price floor. CEGH gas fell by €1.8/MWh on the day but remained at €100.23/MWh, while EU carbon allowances stood at €89.2/t. November gas was priced at €99.50/MWh and Q1 2027 gas at €98.50/MWh, keeping gas-fired generation expensive across the region.
Forward premiums persist
Forward prices indicated that traders did not expect the regional premium to disappear quickly. Hungarian Week 45 power stood at €313/MWh, Week 46 at €310/MWh and November at €293/MWh. The HU-DE forward spread reached €63.5/MWh for Week 45 and €84/MWh for Week 46.
The end-October trading pattern showed SEE remaining structurally short when renewable production weakens. Lower demand alone did not materially reduce prices when wind and solar output fell, leaving Hungary and the Balkans competing for Central European imports. Eastern SEE prices consequently clustered around €300/MWh, with persistent premiums to Germany, Austria and Italy and particularly strong scarcity pricing during evening peak hours.