Serbia’s SEEPEX price fell €43.4/MWh to €241.69/MWh on Tuesday as stronger renewable generation forecasts and higher production reduced import needs across much of Southeast Europe. Day-ahead power prices also dropped sharply in Greece and Hungary despite rising regional consumption. SEEPEX had settled at €285.1/MWh a day earlier, while Hungary’s HUPX fell €26.1 to €241.30/MWh, nearly eliminating the baseload spread between the two markets.
Greece declined €33.7 to €224.85/MWh, the lowest price among the region’s major markets. North Macedonia fell €25 to €259.84/MWh but remained the most expensive SEE market. Romania and Bulgaria retained premiums: OPCOM settled at €255.49/MWh, €14.19 above Hungary, while IBEX reached €254.58/MWh, a €13.28 premium to HUPX.
The price pattern indicated that the extreme tightness in eastern European markets on Monday had eased. Structural congestion and generation risks nevertheless continued to separate Romania and Bulgaria from cheaper markets to the west and south.
Renewables lift regional generation
Improved renewable availability was the main downward pressure on prices. Regional solar generation forecasts rose by almost 2 GW day on day to 4.26 GW, while forecast wind output increased by slightly more than 1 GW to 3.51 GW. Together, the increases added around 3 GW of lower-marginal-cost generation.
Aggregate consumption in Hungary and SEE rose by 626 MW to 32.94 GW, but net regional imports fell by 608 MW to 4.01 GW. Imports from the core Austrian and Slovak direction eased by 219 MW to about 4.38 GW. Regional generation reached around 28.9 GW, up from 27.7 GW on Monday.
The balance with Italy also reversed. The SEE system exported around 155 MW toward Italy, compared with imports of roughly 400 MW a day earlier, a swing of more than 550 MW. Additional regional output absorbed most of the increase in consumption while reducing overall import dependence, indicating that improved generation availability and stronger renewable supply, rather than weak demand, drove Tuesday’s price decline.
Serbia falls despite higher imports
Serbia’s price dropped even as its domestic supply balance tightened. Average consumption rose to around 4.21 GW from 4.05 GW, while generation slipped slightly to about 3.27 GW. Its net import position consequently widened to approximately 935 MW from 722 MW a day earlier, yet SEEPEX fell by more than €43/MWh.
The move showed the importance of regional, rather than solely domestic, conditions in Serbian price formation. Serbia drew electricity from several neighbouring markets as the wider SEE price structure weakened. Commercial flows brought power into Serbia from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Bulgaria, while Serbia also supplied electricity northward toward Hungary during part of the day.
SEEPEX peak prices averaged €253.1/MWh and off-peak prices fell to €230.2/MWh. The daily low was €165.1/MWh and the maximum was €314.4/MWh. The Serbia-Hungary baseload spread narrowed to just €0.39/MWh, putting the markets effectively at parity after periods in which Serbia had carried a material scarcity premium over HUPX.
Montenegro trades below neighbouring markets
Montenegro’s BELEN baseload price declined €8 to €230.55/MWh. That was around €10.75 below Hungary and more than €11 below Serbia. BELEN peak prices averaged €233/MWh, while off-peak prices averaged €228.1/MWh.
Montenegro was also close to physical balance, with average consumption of around 356 MW and generation of about 369 MW. This left a small net export position of around 13 MW after the country had been a net importer the previous day. Its relatively balanced domestic position helped it trade much closer to Greece than to the higher-priced Romanian, Bulgarian and North Macedonian markets.
Albania rises against regional trend
Albania was the main exception to the regional decline. ALPEX rose €36.9 to €251.67/MWh, moving from among the cheaper markets on Monday into the upper part of the SEE price range. Its hourly prices were exceptionally volatile.
Albanian peak prices averaged €221.8/MWh, below the off-peak average of €281.5/MWh. Prices ranged from €20/MWh to €400/MWh during the day. Across the core SEE markets, baseload prices stretched from €224.85/MWh in Greece to €259.84/MWh in North Macedonia, a difference of around €35/MWh.
Germany-Hungary spread remains wide
The largest structural price differential remained between Germany and Hungary. German day-ahead baseload rose €38.5 to €155.11/MWh as HUPX declined to €241.30/MWh. The Hungary-Germany spread consequently narrowed by almost €65/MWh to €86.18/MWh.
Although substantially smaller than in recent sessions, the €86.18/MWh differential still indicated severe limits on the ability of cheaper western European electricity to reach Hungary and Southeast Europe fully. Austria traded at €247.66/MWh and Italy at €246.67/MWh, leaving both slightly above Hungary. Germany remained markedly cheaper, Austria and northern Italy were near SEE price levels, and Romania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia carried the highest premiums.
Forward power stays above spot
The sharp day-ahead decline was not reflected in the forward curve. Hungarian week-45 power rose €6.5 to €301/MWh, week 46 gained €5.5 to €271/MWh, and November increased €8 to €280.50/MWh. Calendar 2026 rose €4 to €182/MWh, leaving November power almost €40/MWh above Tuesday’s HUPX spot settlement.
Fuel and carbon prices also strengthened. Austrian CEGH gas rose €2.6 to €97.71/MWh, Greek gas increased to €86.08/MWh, and EU carbon allowances gained €1.9 to €88.19/t. November coal eased to €149.5/t.
Expensive gas, firmer carbon prices and unresolved generation risks continued to support a substantial risk premium in forward electricity prices. Romania faced uncertainty over nuclear and hydropower availability, while Bulgaria had been dealing with low Danube levels affecting the operating environment around Kozloduy. Those constraints were particularly relevant ahead of November, when solar output enters its seasonal decline.
Tuesday’s spot correction therefore did not amount to a broad easing of the regional winter outlook. Stronger renewable output and improved generation lowered immediate prices, while fuel costs, constrained cross-border capacity and generation-security concerns kept forward prices elevated. For SEE traders, the east-west differential remained a key indicator: despite its sharp decline, the Hungary-Germany spread exceeded €86/MWh and continued to show the region’s structural separation from cheaper German supply.
Until that gap narrows more decisively, sharp daily corrections such as Tuesday’s are more likely to reflect volatility within a fundamentally tight regional market than the start of a sustained decline in SEE power prices.