Serbia became Southeast Europe’s most expensive bidding zone on Monday, October 26, as weekday demand returned and day-ahead power prices rose across most of the region. Its price on day-ahead electricity markets reached €285.08/MWh, the highest level in SEE. North Macedonia was close behind at €284.87/MWh.
Romania climbed almost €40 to €271.92/MWh, while Hungary reached €267.40/MWh, Bulgaria €263.39/MWh and Greece €258.52/MWh. Croatia, Austria, Italy, Slovenia and Montenegro formed a lower-priced group, with prices around €238-243/MWh. Montenegro’s price was €238.55/MWh.
Price increases were broad, although their size varied by market. Croatia rose €39.2/MWh day on day, Romania €39.9, Slovenia €39.1, Bulgaria €33.8 and Greece €31.1. Hungary’s gain was more limited, at €8.1/MWh, while Montenegro increased by €19/MWh.
The main change in market fundamentals was the return of working-day demand after the weekend. Aggregate consumption across Hungary and the monitored SEE markets rose by 3,174 MW, or about 11%, to 31,816 MW. Despite the increase in consumption, regional net imports fell by 336 MW to 4,648 MW, and core imports from Austria and Slovakia eased slightly to 4,632 MW.
Regional generation rose from 23,657 MW on Sunday to 27,168 MW on Monday, an increase of about 3.5 GW that more than covered the rise in consumption. The price increase therefore did not reflect a deterioration in the aggregate supply-demand balance alone. The data instead indicate a return to weekday peak-load pricing, alongside continuing cross-border constraints and high-cost marginal generation in the eastern part of the interconnected market.
Serbia records the region’s highest price
Serbia’s SEEPEX base-load price of €285.08/MWh was roughly €18/MWh above Hungary, €22/MWh above Bulgaria and €27/MWh above Greece. It was also about €44/MWh higher than Italy’s national price. The premium persisted across the day rather than being limited to a few evening hours.
SEEPEX’s minimum hourly price was €220/MWh, while the maximum reached €375.1/MWh in hour 18. Peak-load power averaged €283.7/MWh, compared with €286.5/MWh for off-peak electricity. North Macedonia’s base-load price was almost identical, at €284.87/MWh, creating a high-price Serbia-North Macedonia pocket above the larger Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian markets.
For traders, Serbia’s premium matters because the market was trading materially above both Hungary and the western Balkans. Where transmission capacity is available, that spread can create attractive cross-border economics, while also increasing physical supply costs for Serbian utilities, suppliers and industrial consumers exposed to day-ahead procurement.
German prices rebound while the east-west gap persists
Germany recorded one of the day’s sharpest moves, with day-ahead power rising from €13.7/MWh on Sunday to €116.57/MWh on Monday, a gain of almost €103/MWh. Hungary nevertheless remained €150.83/MWh more expensive than Germany. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed sharply from around €245.6/MWh a day earlier.
The reduction in the spread came almost entirely from the German price recovery, rather than from weakening prices in Central and Southeast Europe. Hungary continued to serve as a major transit market between cheaper Central European supply and tighter eastern markets. Commercial schedules showed substantial volumes entering Hungary from Austria and Slovakia, while power also flowed east towards Romania.
Hungary-to-Romania base-load flows reached about 1,684 MW, including around 1,920 MW during peak hours. The flow pattern helps explain why lower-cost German generation does not automatically bring SEE prices down to similar levels. Cross-border capacity and the configuration of regional flows determine how much western supply can reach deficit markets.
Bulgaria shifts from exporter to importer
Bulgaria’s consumption rose to 4,219 MW, while generation stood at 3,931 MW. The country consequently became a net importer of about 288 MW, after recording net exports of 217 MW on Sunday. IBEX rose to €263.39/MWh, reinforcing the higher-price structure extending from Romania and Bulgaria through Serbia and North Macedonia.
The change is significant because Bulgaria often serves as a generation and transit hub for the southern Balkans. A shift from export availability to import demand removes supply that could otherwise help limit prices elsewhere in the region.
Albania moves against the regional trend
Albania was the main exception to the broader price increase. ALPEX fell by €105.1/MWh from Sunday to €214.76/MWh, leaving the country more than €70/MWh below Serbia. The divergence was evident across the Albanian price curve.
Peak electricity averaged €213.4/MWh and off-peak power €216.1/MWh, with prices ranging from €131/MWh to €325/MWh. The sharp decline against a generally rising regional market highlights the sensitivity of individual Balkan bidding zones to local balances, cross-border schedules and available transmission capacity.
Forward prices and fuel costs remain elevated
The forward curve also strengthened considerably. Hungarian week 44 power rose €14/MWh to €279.50/MWh, while week 45 increased by €23/MWh to €294.50/MWh. November power gained €17/MWh to €272.50/MWh.
Fuel markets remained expensive, with CEGH gas at €95.11/MWh and November gas at €95.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances stood at €86.26/t, and coal forwards also moved higher. The forward price increases indicate that the market was not treating Monday’s rise solely as a one-day rebound driven by the return of demand after the weekend.
For SEE market participants, the more significant signal is the persistence of a high-price zone in eastern Europe despite stronger regional generation and lower aggregate net imports. Serbia at €285/MWh, North Macedonia near the same level and Hungary still €151/MWh above Germany point to the importance of cross-border constraints and regional marginal pricing relative to the headline European supply picture.
Until those spreads narrow materially, access to transmission capacity, generation availability and hourly positioning between Central Europe and the Balkans are likely to remain the dominant drivers of short-term SEE trading economics.