Day-ahead electricity markets across Southeast Europe rose sharply for delivery on 22 May 2026, following softer pricing earlier in the week linked to solar conditions. The rebound was associated with tighter renewable generation balances, higher import dependence, and wider evening scarcity premiums across Central and Eastern Europe. Market moves reflected a shift in intraday supply-demand dynamics as renewable output weakened.
Regional benchmarks close higher
Hungary’s HUPX settled at €116.02/MWh, up 9.3% day-on-day, returning as the highest-priced major market in the region. Romania’s OPCOM closed at €111.89/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX finished at €110.08/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP ended at €109.28/MWh. Bulgaria’s IBEX reached €103.82/MWh, and Greece’s HENEX remained structurally lower at €92.38/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX traded at €68.60/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN fell further to €59.73/MWh, the lowest regional benchmark. Greece’s lower level was linked to stronger domestic renewable balancing and lower marginal thermal pressure. The Serbian discount compared with HUPX reflected differences in pricing structure and integration into broader EU balancing dynamics.
Renewables fall as imports rise
The rebound coincided with a deterioration in renewable generation conditions across the SEE system. Total SEE solar output declined by 1,012 MW day-on-day to 5,302 MW, while wind generation fell by another 575 MW to 3,662 MW. Combined renewable losses exceeded 1.5 GW, tightening intraday balance and increasing reliance on thermal dispatch and cross-border imports.
Consumption increased alongside the renewable decline, with regional demand rising by 559 MW to 28,246 MW. Net imports surged by 1,570 MW day-on-day to 1,193 MW. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungarian-SEE corridor climbed by 976 MW, pointing to renewed north-to-south power flows.
Spark in evening scarcity premiums and spread moves
The Hungary-Germany spread widened sharply to €9.67/MWh, after trading in negative territory earlier in the week. The move signaled tightening Central European fundamentals alongside improved import economics into the SEE region. The reversal followed weakening solar generation conditions.
A shift in generation mix accompanied the market moves, with gas-fired output increasing by 471 MW to 3,109 MW. Coal generation remained elevated at 4,694 MW, while hydro production stayed relatively stable at 6,824 MW. Nuclear output was flat near 3,076 MW.
Evolving intraday price profile across hubs
Intraday curves showed more pronounced evening peaks across multiple markets. Hungary recorded a daily maximum of €226.8/MWh, Romania €207.1/MWh, Croatia €192.9/MWh, and Greece €166.4/MWh. Most markets peaked during hours 21–22, when solar output collapsed after sunset while demand remained elevated.
Midsday minimum prices again approached zero in several markets during solar-heavy hours. Slovenia and Greece recorded near-zero or negative intraday pricing during those periods. The divergence between near-zero midday levels and scarcity-driven evening prices supported increased value for flexibility resources across the region.
Borders flows, forward prices, and fuel-commodity signals
The Serbia discount persisted versus neighboring EU markets, with SEEPEX averaging only €68.60/MWh, nearly €47/MWh below HUPX. The gap reflected Serbia’s relatively insulated pricing structure, domestic coal exposure, and weaker alignment with broader EU balancing dynamics.
Cross-border commercial flows
Cross-border commercial flows continued with an export orientation from Romania toward Hungary and Serbia.
Romania exported about 752 MW toward Hungary on average.
Hungary exported around 472 MW toward Croatia and 857 MW toward Austria under base-load conditions.
Meteorology support from hydro; investment activity continues
The hydrological backdrop provided partial support for hydro systems in the region. Danube flow levels were near 6,757 m³/s, above historical averages, helping stabilize hydro output across Romania and the wider Balkan system. Even so, hydro was described as insufficient to offset volatile solar and wind patterns during rapid weather transitions.
The regional investment agenda included Romania’s progress on renewable infrastructure through Hidroelectrica’s agreement worth €188.5 million for the 335 MW Raul Mare Retezat hydropower plant refurbishment. Rezolv Energy also sought EBRD backing for a new 315 MW wind project in Constanta county.