Weekly averages down after second-week price declines
Across major European electricity markets, daily prices during the second week of May stayed below the levels recorded in the previous week. Weekly average prices fell across all analyzed markets versus the prior period. The British market posted the smallest decline at 0.1%, while France recorded the largest drop at 40%. In other markets covered by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, reductions ranged from 7.5% in the Nordic region to 17% in Spain.
May 11 week: most markets below €100/MWh
For the week of May 11, weekly average electricity prices remained under €100/MWh in most European markets. Italy and the UK were the main exceptions, with averages of €116.22/MWh and €119.33/MWh, respectively. At the lower end, France, Spain, and Portugal recorded the weakest weekly averages at €44.02/MWh, €49.83/MWh, and €49.98/MWh. Elsewhere, prices were more tightly grouped, from €90.29/MWh in Belgium to €98.87/MWh in Germany.
Daily patterns: Iberia and France below €50/MWh
During the second week of May, Spain and Portugal, along with France, frequently saw daily prices below €50/MWh. France also recorded the lowest daily average of the week, dropping to €24.36/MWh on May 14. This level was among the weakest daily price points among the analyzed markets. The same period showed a different pricing pattern in Italy and the UK.
Higher price pressure in Italy and the UK
Italy and Britain experienced higher price pressure throughout the week of May 11, with daily averages exceeding €100/MWh. Several additional markets also crossed above €100/MWh in at least one trading session, including Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the Nordic region. Italy logged the highest daily price of the week at €136.36/MWh on May 15. These figures reflect a split between consistently lower-priced sessions in parts of Iberia and France and higher-priced trading in Italy and the UK.
Drivers and outlook for late May pricing
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting cited increased wind and solar generation across Europe as the main factor behind falling electricity prices during the week of May 11. In some regions, lower electricity demand also supported price declines. Looking ahead to the third week of May, AleaSoft expects prices to rise again as wind energy production is forecast to decline. At the same time, demand is projected to increase in certain markets.
AleaSoft also noted that gas prices are likely to remain a key factor influencing European electricity price dynamics during this period. The forecast links changing generation conditions and demand levels with ongoing sensitivity to gas market movements. These factors are expected to shape how prices develop across analyzed European trading areas into late May.