Brent crude oil futures for the ICE Front Month contract recorded a weekly peak settlement of $114.44/bbl on Monday, May 4. After that high, prices moved lower through the remainder of the week. The contract reached a weekly low of $100.06/bbl on Thursday, May 7. It then closed Friday, May 8 at $101.29/bbl, still 6.4% below the previous Friday, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data.
Market moves during the week reflected a combination of geopolitical and supply expectations. Escalating geopolitical tensions provided intermittent upward pressure at points in the session. However, expectations for a potential United States–Iran agreement weighed more heavily on sentiment. That backdrop contributed to a bearish tone that pushed prices down after the May 4 peak.
European gas futures track similar direction
In the European gas market, TTF gas futures for the ICE Front Month contract followed a comparable pattern. Prices peaked at €48.14/MWh on Monday, May 4. They then declined to a weekly minimum of €43.56/MWh on Thursday, May 7. On Friday, May 8, prices recovered to €44.14/MWh, which was still 3.5% lower than the previous week’s close.
The same US–Iran agreement expectations were cited as a factor behind the downward pressure in gas prices. Such an agreement was linked to easing global supply concerns and reopening key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. That development was associated with improved market sentiment regarding future LNG flows.
EEX CO2 allowances rise while oil and gas fall
CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market showed a different trajectory from oil and gas. The December 2026 contract started the week at its minimum level of €73.06/t on May 4. Prices increased during subsequent sessions and reached a weekly peak of €76.07/t on May 6. Throughout most of the week, settlements stayed above €75/t.
By Friday, May 8, the settlement price stood at €75.20/t. This was still 1.9% higher than the previous week’s closing level. Carbon prices were described as remaining relatively firm due to continued structural pressure from EU emissions policy.
AleaSoft reported that energy commodity markets in the first week of May reflected a mixed macro environment across oil, gas and carbon contracts. Expectations tied to geopolitical de-escalation weighed on oil and gas prices during the period. At the same time, carbon markets held up as EU emissions policy continued to support structural demand for allowances.