Wholesale electricity pricing in Europe showed a pattern that matters for grid planning and renewable dispatch: a midweek rise was followed by declines on March 19 and 20, with additional easing over the weekend. The result was a broad reduction in weekly average prices across most major markets, even as daily volatility persisted. For developers and operators, these swings influence revenue expectations used in early-stage CAPEX planning and the scheduling assumptions behind engineering studies.
Weekly averages down, with sharp Iberian drops
Across the third week of March, prices generally trended upward at first, but fell on March 19 and 20 and then eased again over the weekend. Weekly average prices decreased in most markets, indicating that the later-day pullback outweighed earlier gains. Italy, Germany and Great Britain were notable exceptions, posting increases of 1.0%, 7.1% and 20% respectively. By contrast, Portugal and Spain recorded the steepest declines, with prices falling by 49% and 50%.
Other hubs tracked a wider spread of weekly outcomes, reflecting how generation mix and demand conditions can shift quickly. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data showed price decreases ranging from 2.3% in the Dutch market to 42% in the French market. This kind of dispersion is relevant to transmission infrastructure planning because it affects congestion risk assessments and the economic case for new interconnection capacity.
Most markets above €90/MWh in the week of March 16
In the week of March 16, weekly average prices exceeded €90/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were Portugal, Spain, France and the Nordic region, where averages stood at €34.83/MWh, €35.32/MWh, €46.90/MWh and €55.39/MWh respectively. Italy led on the high end with a weekly average of €149.04/MWh. In remaining analyzed markets, prices ranged from €93.49/MWh in Belgium to €126.57/MWh in Great Britain.
For project teams preparing grid modernization roadmaps or EPC preparation packages, these levels provide context for how volatile price environments can be when aligning renewable output profiles with system needs. They also shape how battery energy storage systems are modeled for operational delivery—particularly around arbitrage windows and balancing support assumptions.
Daily lows on March 19; Italy stays elevated
Daily price movements highlighted where volatility concentrated during the period. On Thursday, March 19, Spain and Portugal recorded the lowest averages among the analyzed markets at €24.95/MWh. Both markets also posted daily prices below €30/MWh on March 18 and March 22. France fell below this threshold on March 18 as well, while the Nordic market did so on Sunday, March 22.
Italy remained consistently high through the third week of March, with market prices staying above €135/MWh throughout the period. Germany, Belgium, Great Britain and the Netherlands also saw sessions above €100/MWh at points during the week. On Sunday, March 22, Italy recorded the highest daily average among the analyzed markets at €161.89/MWh, while on Friday, March 20, Great Britain reached its highest price since February 3, 2025 at €157.88/MWh.
Gas up pressure offset by CO₂ costs, demand softness and solar; wind helps Iberia
The drivers behind these movements were tied to fuel and emissions costs alongside generation patterns. In the week of March 16, rising gas prices contributed to upward pressure on European electricity prices. That effect was partially offset by lower CO₂ emission allowance prices, reduced electricity demand and increased solar generation across most markets—factors that supported price declines in many regions.
Wind generation played a direct role in shifting outcomes for Iberia: higher wind output in the Iberian Peninsula helped push prices lower in Spain and Portugal. For wind developers and transmission planners alike, this reinforces how seasonal resource variability can rapidly change market clearing levels—an input that typically feeds into technical studies such as grid impact assessments and curtailment sensitivity analyses.
Outlook for late March: potential increases elsewhere; Iberia may see downward pressure
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts point to a different balance in the fourth week of March. Prices may increase across most major European electricity markets as elevated gas prices coincide with rising demand. Lower solar generation in Germany and reduced wind output in France could further support price increases in those markets.
At the same time, forecast conditions suggest countervailing effects for Iberia: higher wind generation in the Iberian Peninsula and increased solar production in Spain are expected to exert downward pressure on prices in Spain and Portugal. For investors evaluating procurement frameworks and execution readiness—especially where battery energy storage systems are paired with renewables—these signals matter because they influence expected operating regimes during late-March dispatch windows.
Overall, Europe’s power price trajectory through late March underscores how quickly wholesale conditions can shift between midweek surges and weekend declines across key markets. With weekly averages falling broadly despite localized spikes—while solar output increases and wind strength weigh on Iberian pricing—the implications extend beyond trading into renewable integration planning, grid modernization priorities and EPC preparation assumptions for both generation assets and storage delivery strategies.