In the second half of June, natural gas prices fell while electricity prices rose across multiple Southeast European trading hubs. CEGH gas decreased to €43.06/MWh from €49.35/MWh, and Greek gas moved down to €41.37/MWh from €46.14/MWh. Electricity markets moved in the opposite direction during the same period.
On power trading venues, Hungary’s HUPX increased to €149.01/MWh, up €48.7/MWh versus the first half of June. Romania’s OPCOM rose to €146.80/MWh, an increase of €47.6/MWh. Similar upward changes were reported in Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia.
CROPEX reached €136.67/MWh, while BSP Slovenia rose to €134.33/MWh. SEEPEX increased to €114.87/MWh. The pattern across these markets showed electricity prices rising despite lower gas costs.
Demand growth and warmer conditions lifted system load
The increase in electricity prices was linked to higher demand during the second half of June. Average electricity consumption across the HU+SEE region climbed to 31,414 MW, compared with 28,054 MW in the first half of the month. That equated to an increase of 3,360 MW.
Temperatures also moved higher over the same period, excluding Greece. Average conditions in HU+SEE rose from 20.3°C to 25.5°C. Warmer weather increased air-conditioning needs, particularly during evening hours.
The timing of demand growth coincided with a shift in generation patterns during late hours. Solar output declined as evening approached, increasing reliance on sources able to respond quickly. The need for flexibility became more prominent during periods when temperatures were elevated.
Flexible capacity tightened even without an overall generation shortfall
The region did not face an overall shortage of generation capacity, according to the June data cited for HU+SEE. Instead, the issue was described as a shortage of flexible capacity available at critical hours. Gas-fired output increased by 1,177 MW, while coal generation rose by 476 MW.
Nuclear generation also increased by 922 MW, alongside growth in wind and solar production. Wind output expanded by 841 MW, and solar generation grew by 894 MW. Hydropower declined slightly, falling by 130 MW.
This mix affected how supply aligned with demand across the day. Solar generation reduced daytime prices but required faster evening ramping once production fell. Wind provided additional supply but did not always coincide with peak-demand periods.
Evening scarcity drove premiums across regional power markets
A key signal from June was a widening gap between midday supply and evening scarcity conditions. Late-hour price premiums were reported in markets including Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Slovenia. The data indicated that electricity value increasingly depended on when power was delivered rather than only on total generation.
Hungary emerged as the main scarcity reference point within the region’s trading dynamics. The cited drivers included strong demand growth and dependence on imports alongside nuclear cooling constraints at Paks. Limited flexibility during peak periods was also identified as a factor affecting scarcity outcomes.
Market assessment expanded beyond gas price indicators
The June pricing pattern indicated that traditional gas-price indicators were not sufficient for understanding Southeast European electricity markets. A broader set of variables was described as necessary for analysis beyond fuel costs alone. These included weather patterns and nuclear availability.
The assessment framework also referenced hydropower conditions and solar generation profiles across time periods. Cross-border transmission capacity and balancing resources were included as additional elements affecting outcomes in June. The month showed that declining gas prices could coincide with rising electricity prices when flexible supply did not meet demand growth.
Implications for storage and flexible demand solutions were highlighted for investors
The June market signal pointed to increased relevance for storage technologies and flexible resources for investors in the region’s power sector. The discussion included pumped hydro and flexible generation alongside demand-side solutions as categories gaining importance based on observed price behavior.