Day-ahead price moves across Southeast Europe
Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets repriced on Monday, with increases that varied by country. HUPX rose by €44.90/MWh to €125.90/MWh, while Slovenia increased to €126.01/MWh. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece settled around €110–114/MWh, whereas Serbia, Montenegro and Albania remained lower.
The spreads between Hungary and several neighbours widened. Hungary traded €28.37/MWh above Serbia, €30.66/MWh above Montenegro and €41.62/MWh above Albania. The Hungary-Greece spread reached €15.74/MWh, while Slovenia was almost exactly aligned with HUPX.
Lower prices in the Western Balkans and higher levels in the EU north
Serbia’s SEEPEX price climbed by €24.90/MWh to €97.53/MWh. Montenegro fell by €6.30/MWh to €95.24/MWh, while Albania declined slightly to a regional minimum of €84.28/MWh. North Macedonia increased to €104.73/MWh.
In the southern interconnected area, Romania settled at €114.46/MWh, Bulgaria at €110.26/MWh, and Greece at €110.16/MWh. The Bulgaria-Greece spread was only €0.10/MWh. Both markets remained more than €15/MWh below Hungary.
The largest external price signal came from Italy, where the national day-ahead average reached €152.11/MWh. Italy traded at a premium of €26.21/MWh to HUPX, €41.85/MWh to Bulgaria and more than €54/MWh to Serbia. Germany settled at €119.11/MWh, leaving HUPX at a €6.79/MWh premium, while Austria reached €128.93/MWh, or just €3.03/MWh above Hungary.
Demand, renewables output and net import changes on Monday
The Monday demand rebound was supported by higher forecast consumption and stronger renewables generation. Forecast regional consumption increased by 3,957 MW, or about 14.3%, to an average of 31,616 MW. Net imports fell by 832 MW to only 959 MW.
The renewable generation improvement accounted for the difference between higher demand and lower net imports. Forecast solar production rose by 2,598 MW to 7,894 MW, while wind increased by 1,089 MW to 2,168 MW. Combined solar and wind reached 10,062 MW, up by 3,687 MW.
The increase in renewables covered about 93% of the demand rise between Sunday and Monday, with solar alone equivalent to around 25% of average regional consumption. Combined solar and wind represented almost 32%. Net imports covered roughly 3% of consumption versus about 6.5% on Sunday, implying domestic generation needs close to 30.66 GW .
Northern and central flows into the Hungary-Slovenia area; exports toward Italy and Bulgaria’s role
Mondays’ import pattern reflected a shift in cross-border flows rather than a change in aggregate supply adequacy across the region. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-Slovenia area and wider SEE declined by 905 MW to 2,027 MW while the region continued sending about 1,181 MW toward Italy .
The country-level power balance showed Hungary as a net importer of approximately 1,042 MW while Croatia imported 839 MW , Serbia imported 445 MW and Romania imported 314 MW . Bulgaria was the principal exporter at about 1,275 MW and Greece exported around 380 MW .
Bulgaria’s commercial deliveries were concentrated across baseload hours at around 475 MW to Romania, 269 MW to Serbia and 335 MW to Greece based on seven-day averages for commercial flows. Exports from Bulgaria to Greece fell to roughly 80 MW during peak hours as evening demand increased.
Bilateral dependencies affecting Serbia and Croatia; intraday price shape across markets
Serbia relied on multiple surrounding systems with average flows including deliveries from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina , Hungary and North Macedonia, particularly during peak hours. Despite those imports, SEEPEX remained €12.63/MWh below Bulgaria and €28.37/MWh below Hungary.
Croatia’s 839 MW >net-import requirement was supported by flows from Hungary and Slovenia based on seven-day averages showing Hungary-to-Croatia deliveries of about571 MW