Montenegro’s electricity market is moving from isolation toward gradual convergence with regional hubs, according to Electricity.Trade’s assessment of regulatory developments. The completion of the Electricity Integration Package in February 2026 is set to enable eventual participation in Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) and Single Intraday Coupling (SIDC), subject to formal verification. The process frames BELEN as a future convergence market within the regional trading setup.
BELEN price spreads and liquidity profile
Historically, BELEN has operated as a peripheral market with limited liquidity and pronounced price discounts. On 24 February, BELEN’s base price was 40.00 EUR/MWh, nearly 75 EUR/MWh lower than Hungary. Electricity.Trade says such spreads are incompatible with a coupled environment and are already linked to speculative positioning focused on future convergence.
Expected effects from day-ahead coupling
Market coupling is expected to increase liquidity by bringing BELEN into a broader participant base and through implicit capacity allocation. Electricity.Trade links improved order book depth to lower execution risk and tighter bidding behavior. The analysis also points to likely increases in average prices as risk premiums compress, while extreme volatility is expected to moderate.
Intraday coupling and imbalance exposure
Intraday coupling is expected to change trading conditions by enabling continuous cross-border transactions. Electricity.Trade says this would allow market participants to handle forecast errors closer to real time. The same analysis indicates that this can reduce imbalance exposure and support more aggressive day-ahead strategies.
Volatility transfer during regional stress
Electricity.Trade also cautions that coupling can import volatility into Montenegro’s market. The country would become more sensitive to price shocks originating in Italy and Hungary, particularly during regional stress events. The transition is described as a repricing rather than a stabilization of price dynamics.
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