South-East European power markets opened the week with a broad, sharp day-ahead repricing. Baseload prices rose by €36/MWh to €44/MWh across most exchanges as weekday demand increased, net imports fell, and the evening scarcity premium returned after Sunday’s low-load session.
HUPX settled at €127.61/MWh, up €41.70/MWh. SEEPEX reached €131.27/MWh, the highest among the main SEE markets, and was €43.90/MWh above Sunday. Romania cleared at €126.66/MWh, Croatia at €126.74/MWh, Slovenia at €127.36/MWh, Albania at €126.02/MWh, and Bulgaria and Greece both at €124.88/MWh.
BELEN and MEMO remained at the bottom of the regional range, settling at €121.00/MWh and €122.97/MWh respectively. Despite lower levels, both markets recorded increases of €36.20/MWh and €38.00/MWh. Baseload convergence was visible across central and eastern SEE exchanges, but structural boundaries persisted at both ends of the region.
Germany stayed well below SEE at €103.16/MWh, leaving a €24.44/MWh spread versus Hungary. Italy’s national price reached €172.56/MWh, creating premiums of €44.95/MWh to Hungary, €47.68/MWh to Greece, and €51.56/MWh to Montenegro.
Intraday pattern shifts from solar trough to evening scarcity
The baseload averages masked a strong intraday split driven by solar output and later system tightness. Solar pushed most coupled markets to their minimum prices between H10 and H14, while the daily maximum moved to H20-H22 when photovoltaic generation had largely ended.
On HUPX, the minimum was €43.10/MWh at H14 and the maximum was €194.70/MWh at H22, producing a daily range of €151.60/MWh. Hungary’s peak block averaged €97.90/MWh, while the off-peak block averaged €157.30/MWh, reflecting higher late-evening hours.
Greece and Bulgaria followed almost identical hourly profiles, falling to €42.60/MWh before rising to €190.30/MWh. Romania traded between €42.40/MWh and €190.60/MWh, while Slovenia ranged from €47.90/MWh to €186.80/MWh.
Serbia tightened structurally: SEEPEX never dropped below €80.10/MWh, reached €210.00/MWh at H21, and posted a peak-block average of €116.80/MWh. Its off-peak average was €145.80/MWh, which was €11.50/MWh below Hungary; the premium was concentrated in the daytime and evening balancing window rather than across the full delivery day.
North Macedonia recorded a range of €56.00-207.70/MWh, while Albania ranged from €63.50-213.00/MWh and Montenegro from €52.10-179.00/MWh. Italy remained expensive even during the solar trough, with a minimum of €147.20/MWh and a maximum of €213.80/MWh; its intraday range was €66.60/MWh.
Theoretical storage signal alongside weekday load recovery
The intraday spreads implied a storage-oriented price shape across several markets. The gross HUPX minimum-to-maximum spread reached €151.60/MWh, compared with €147.70/MWh in Greece and Bulgaria, €151.70/MWh in North Macedonia, and €129.90/MWh in Serbia.
Theoretical battery returns would be lower after round-trip losses, trading fees, degradation and imperfect dispatch, but the price profile rewarded midday charging and evening discharge based on the observed shape.
Total consumption across HU+SEE increased from 30,910 MW to 33,502 MW, up 2,592 MW (8.4%). The increase reflected weekday effects reinforced by higher demand in eastern and southern markets.
Bulgaria recorded the largest proportional rise as demand climbed by 807 MW or 23.6% to 4,232 MW; Romania added 720 MW to reach 5,926 MW; Greece increased by 896 MW or 12.5% to 8,070 MW. Croatia, Slovenia, Albania and Kosovo also saw higher consumption.
Hungary’s demand fell by about 175 MW to 4,219 MW, while Serbia’s consumption dropped by 130 MW to 3,441 MW; these declines moderated load growth in northern and central areas but did not prevent regional repricing.
Generation expands faster than demand as imports decline
Total generation rose from 28,312 MW to 31,465 MW, an increase of 3,153 MW or 11.1%. Generation grew faster than consumption, reducing net regional imports from 2,598 MW to 2,037 MW.
Imports covered about 6.1% of aggregate demand compared with 8.4% on Sunday.
A forecast of solar production at 8,518 MW, up by 2,532 MW day on day, contrasted with wind expected to fall by 290 MW to 1,467 MW. The net renewable increase of about 2.24 GW covered most of the weekday demand recovery but did not remove the evening deficit.
The previous day’s regional generation mix remained relatively balanced: coal supplied about 21%, solar 21%, nuclear 19%, hydro 16%, gas 14%, wind 6%, with other sources around 2%. This left the system exposed to both solar-driven midday compression and thermal-driven evening marginality.
Hungary as import-and-redistribution hub by time block
Averages into Hungary and Slovenia from Austria and Slovakia were 3,520 MW, down by 363 MW day on day but still above the region’s final net import position for the delivery day.
Slovakia supplied Hungary with an average of 1,829 MW, rising to 2,309 MW during off-peak hours; Austria supplied an additional average of 627 MW.
Hungary exported power of 799 MW to Romania, 690 MW to Croatia and 310 MW to Slovenia on average over the day’s blocks combined; its net position shifted sharply by time period with a net exporter role during peak hours (621 MW) turning into a net importer role off peak (1,974 MW).
This pattern aligns with Hungary’s role as a temporal and geographic redistribution market: large volumes entered during lower-load periods from Slovakia and Austria before electricity moved east toward Romania and south toward Croatia and Slovenia when those systems tightened.
Tighter Serbian evening balance supports SEEPEX premium over HUPX
Serbia generated 3,038 MW against consumption of 3,441 MW, leaving an average import requirement of 403 MW. While this deficit was smaller than Sunday’s 585 MW, its hourly distribution was tighter with net imports rising to 725 MW during peak hours, compared with only 81 MW off peak.
The Bulgaria-to-Serbia supply route was absent as the Bulgaria-Serbia flow fell from 331 MW on Sunday to zero. Serbia instead imported about 300 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), 233 MW from Croatia and 214 MW from Romania; peak imports from Romania alone reached 410 MW.
At the same time Serbia exported 234 MW to Montenegro and 118 MW to North Macedonia while balancing a domestic generation deficit alongside southbound deliveries tied to contractual and physical flows.
This combination supported a €3.66/MWh SEEPEX premium over HUPX. It also supported a premium of €6.39/MWh versus Bulgaria and Greece.
Bulgaria-Greece corridor converges while Italy draws western SEE volumes
Bulgaria remained SEE’s largest net exporter at 1,010 MW, supported by total generation of 5,241 MW against consumption of 4,232 MW. Bulgaria delivered an average of 639 MW to Greece, along with 408 MW to North Macedonia; flows on the Romania-Bulgaria border were close to balance with about 51 MW toward Romania.
The Bulgaria-to-Greece flow rose to 1,596 MW during H20, matching regional evening price escalation; despite that transfer size Bulgaria and Greece cleared at exactly the same baseload price of €124.88/MWh. Hourly congestion remained relevant even though baseload averages converged.
Irrigation for Greece came through imports: