The regional day-ahead market corrected sharply following the previous heat-driven price spike. HUPX dropped to €100.96/MWh, down €36/MWh day on day, while SEEPEX Serbia settled at €104.92/MWh, down €32.5/MWh. Romania traded at €108.96/MWh, and Albania at €112.91/MWh. Slovenia and Croatia were lower at €86.42/MWh and €91.45/MWh respectively.
Italy remained the main outlier in the regional pricing set. The national price held at €139.37/MWh, only €2.7/MWh lower day on day, keeping Italy as the regional premium market. Germany was the clear low-price anchor at €59.54/MWh, widening the commercial logic for Core-to-SEE and SEE-to-Italy positioning.
Spread dynamics between Hungary, Germany and Greece
The price decline was accompanied by a more spread-driven regional shape. The HU-DE spread narrowed to €41.42/MWh, but remained wide enough to support imports from the Core area into Hungary and Slovenia. At the same time, the HU-GR spread was almost flat at -€0.95/MWh, indicating convergence between Greece and Hungary on the day.
Italy maintained a premium of roughly €38/MWh over HUPX. This kept the Italian border structurally attractive where capacity is available, particularly during evening scarcity hours.
Consumption and generation balance shift
Regional physical conditions softened as demand eased and external price pressure fell. Regional consumption declined to 32,895 MW, down 583 MW day on day, while total net imports fell to 2,835 MW, down 747 MW. Imports still represented around 11% of the regional power balance.
Generation was weaker across several sources: hydro fell by 890 MW, gas by 901 MW, and solar by 814 MW. Coal was broadly stable at 6,064 MW, while wind improved modestly to 1,777 MW.
Country net positions highlight import needs
Romania remained a major net importer despite higher generation output than consumption levels in absolute terms. Romania imported 1,533 MW overall with generation of 4,593 MW against consumption of 6,126 MW.
Hungary also imported 1,210 MW, with domestic generation at 3,490 MW versus consumption of 4,700 MW. Serbia stayed short by 438 MW, with generation of 3,046 MW against consumption of 3,484 MW.
Bulgaria exported 909 MW supported by nuclear and solar output, while Bosnia and Herzegovina exported 553 MW. Greece moved into a modest import position of 326 MW despite still-high solar and gas output, with demand of 7,397 MW.
Hourly price range points to evening exposure
The hourly profile showed wide intraday movement relevant for trading and storage operations. On HUPX, the daily minimum was €9.6/MWh at hour 14 and the maximum reached €204.3/MWh at hour 19.
Serbia’s curve was flatter but remained usable for intraday optimization, with a minimum of €46/MWh and a maximum of €175/MWh at the evening peak. Germany and Austria showed the clearest solar depression, with Germany reaching -€5/MWh.
Italy retained a high floor in comparison with other markets in the set. Italy’s minimum was €117.3/MWh and its maximum was €170.2/MWh.
Cross-border flows from Core into Hungary and Slovenia
The flow pattern indicated continued net importing from the Core area into the HU+SEE region. Flows were described as AT+SK greater than HU+SI at 3,797 MW.
The same flow set also recorded exports from the region toward Italy of 418 MW and toward Ukraine/Moldova of 554 MW. Internal Balkan flows shifted as well: MK+AL+BG exceeded GR by 434 MW.
Forward prices stay higher despite day-ahead correction
Forward markets did not fully reflect the day-ahead correction in spot pricing levels for Hungary. HU Week 28 traded at €111/MWh while HU Week 29 rose to €146.5/MWh.
HU Week 29 was up €5.5/MWh day on day and more than 22% over seven days. Gas prices remained elevated with CEGH at €45.10/MWh and EUA near €79.45/t into the next delivery week.
Serbia’s spot level relative to HUPX and Italy
For Serbia’s daily signal, SEEPEX settled at €104.92/MWh compared with HUPX slightly below that level and well below Italy’s price level in the same set of markets. Serbia also remained importing at 438 MW on the day.
The Serbian generation mix relied on coal as the dominant source in the previous-day stack at around 76%, alongside hydro at 20% and wind at 4%. The note also referenced coal’s role in keeping SEEPEX aligned with higher Balkan cluster pricing rather than Austria/Germany levels.
The same daily setup placed emphasis on flexibility for wind, solar and BESS investors through balancing services and evening capture rather than baseload merchant exposure.