The 6 July 2026 day-ahead session marked a post-weekend reset across Southeast Europe, moving from a low-price Sunday structure into firmer Monday trading. Demand recovery, temperature-driven load, and the return of evening scarcity pricing shaped the regional curve.
Hungary provided the strongest benchmark signal, with HUPX settling at €116.43/MWh, up by €44.1/MWh versus the prior day. Romania followed at €116.29/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia converged at €116.22/MWh and €115.71/MWh respectively. The pricing levels indicated a Central Eastern European cluster with limited divergence across the session.
Italy premium and Montenegro volatility in regional price levels
Montenegro recorded the most pronounced volatility within the SEE complex, with BELEN rising to €133.23/MWh, up by €74.6/MWh. Italy set the top regional level at €144.03/MWh, continuing to pull south-eastern flows toward the Adriatic basin.
At the lower end of the range, Serbia traded at €97.84/MWh, below Hungary by €18.59/MWh and more than €46/MWh under Italy. North Macedonia was the regional low at €90.94/MWh. Serbia’s lower level occurred despite net importing conditions.
Demand recovery and cross-border flow shifts
The price rebound aligned with a sharp increase in consumption across the HU+SEE area. Total demand rose to 30,779 MW, an increase of 3,332 MW compared with Sunday.
At the same time, total net imports fell from 2,006 MW to 1,294 MW. This reduced reliance on additional external supply and increased the share met through domestic generation and internal redispatch.
Cross-border flows reflected a dual orientation for balancing between SEE and Italy-linked demand. Imports from CORE remained significant, with AT+SK → HU+SEE flows at 2,477 MW, while exports toward Italy reached 1,089 MW. The flow pattern pointed to balancing driven by price differentials rather than simple surplus or deficit positions.
Intraday price shape highlights evening scarcity
The session’s key signal was the intraday price profile rather than only daily averages. In Hungary, prices moved from a low of €37.2/MWh at H11 to a peak of €215.2/MWh at H21.
Romania showed a similar structure, ranging from €36.7/MWh at H11 to €212.6/MWh at H21. Serbia also displayed strong volatility, with a low of €23/MWh at H12 and a peak of €150.1/MWh at H21.
The intraday pattern matched a summer solar profile in which midday photovoltaic oversupply suppresses prices while the evening ramp increases scarcity as solar output falls but cooling demand persists. Hungary’s off-peak average of €144.6/MWh exceeded its peak average of €88.3/MWh.
Flexibility spreads and country balance across exports and imports
Flexibility signals were visible in intraday spreads reaching approximately €178/MWh in Hungary, €176/MWh in Romania, and about €127/MWh in Serbia. The spreads supported arbitrage opportunities for battery storage, demand response, and flexible generation targeting the H20–H22 ramp period.
The country balance data showed a fragmented structure across exporters and importers rather than a single unified block. Bulgaria remained the strongest exporter with 1,393 MW net exports, supported by generation of 5,323 MW against consumption of 3,931 MW.
Bulgaria and Greece exported while several markets imported power
Bulgaria and Greece exported while several markets imported power
Bulgaria remained the strongest exporter (1,393 MW net exports), supported by generation of 5,323 MW versus consumption of 3,931 MW. Greece also stayed in export mode with 618 MW net exports, while Bosnia and Herzegovina exported 355 MW.
On the import side, Croatia (1,015 MW), Hungary (861 MW), Romania (588 MW), Serbia (545 MW), Slovenia (285 MW), Montenegro (217 MW), and Albania (120 MW) all remained net importers. This arrangement reflected cross-border balancing alongside export liquidity from Bulgaria and Greece.
Serbia as an importer despite lower prices; Montenegro linked to Italy flows
Serbia remained instructive for how pricing can diverge from simple generation-surplus expectations. Despite trading at €97.84/MWh, it was still a 545 MW net importer with generation of 2,807 MW against consumption of 3,352 MW.
The flow pattern showed Serbia importing from multiple neighbors while exporting into selected directions. This supported its role as a transit and balancing node rather than a purely surplus or deficit market.
Montenegro also illustrated corridor effects on pricing dynamics. With generation of 209 MW and consumption of 426 MW, it was structurally short domestically but maintained strong export flows toward Italy—432 MW on base and 458 MW on peak.
Forward contracts and commodity inputs during the same period
The forward curve pointed to continued short-term tightening expectations in Hungary week-ahead contracts. Week 28 traded at €110/MWh and Week 29 at €146/MWh.
The HU-DE spread for Week 29 reached €30.5/MWh alongside these higher Hungarian contract levels.
Fuel-related inputs were described as stable during the same period, with CEGH gas at €45.90/MWh and Greek gas at €43.75/MWh. EUA carbon prices hovered around €80.6/t.