South-east Europe and Hungary started the week with a sharp rise in day-ahead power prices on 15 June 2026. The change reflected a market increasingly shaped by hourly patterns rather than broad fuel-driven tightness. The daily profile showed softer conditions during solar-heavy midday hours, alongside stronger scarcity value after solar output falls.
Hungary was the clearest reference point. HUPX settled at €91.89/MWh, up €31.9/MWh from Sunday. Romania followed at €90.24/MWh, with Slovenia at €87.85/MWh, Croatia at €87.23/MWh, Greece at €86.75/MWh and Bulgaria at €85.71/MWh. Italy remained the premium market at €130.02/MWh, while Serbia traded at a deep discount of €53.40/MWh, or €38.49/MWh below HUPX.
Regional price spreads and cross-border flows
The SEE complex repriced upward in a relatively coordinated move, but not evenly across markets. Italy’s premium over Hungary, at roughly €38.13/MWh, supported an export signal toward Italy, with flows rising to around 1,055 MW. Western Balkans prices remained lower, with Albania at €64.56/MWh, Montenegro at €72.50/MWh and North Macedonia at €72.05/MWh. The spreads created arbitrage value while also highlighting limits to physical integration tied to border capacity, auction costs, balancing risk and carbon-adjusted treatment.
The physical balance did not indicate an outright regional supply squeeze. Average regional consumption increased to 28,944 MW, up 3,337 MW from Sunday as weekday load returned. At the same time, total net imports fell to 1,652 MW, down 1,325 MW day-on-day. Prices rose despite lower imports, pointing to load shape and residual-hour tightness rather than a simple external supply shortage.
Core imports into the Hungary-Slovenia area from Austria and Slovakia stayed material at 2,970 MW. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed to €17.62/MWh, compared with €34.8/MWh previously. Hungary remained premium to Germany, but the premium was less stressed than on Sunday.
Hourly curve shifts from midday softness to evening scarcity
The hourly curve showed the key change behind the baseload settlement levels. HUPX recorded a minimum of just €4.9/MWh at H14, during the solar-rich middle of the day, before rising to a maximum of €182.2/MWh at H21. The baseload settlement of €91.9/MWh therefore masked a highly distorted intraday pattern.
The traditional peak block was weaker at €59.4/MWh, while the off-peak block reached €124.4/MWh. This inversion reflected the value of morning and evening hours outside the solar-suppressed midday window. Solar output was central to the shape: regional solar generation was forecast at 7,296 MW, up 2,812 MW day-on-day.
Solar compression did not remove scarcity; it shifted it into later hours when residual demand had to be met by hydro, gas, coal, imports and flexible generation. Wind provided only modest support at 1,160 MW, leaving the evening stack exposed to thermal and import marginality.
Bilateral balances and generation inputs across HU+SEE
Bulgaria and Greece were net contributors in national balances, exporting around 489 MW and 264 MW, respectively. Croatia was the largest importer at roughly 1,141 MW, followed by Romania at 904 MW, Serbia at 418 MW, and Hungary at 269 MW. The HU+SEE area remained net short by 1,652 MW, but less short than on the previous day.
The price increase aligned with a need for more firmness in specific hours rather than deterioration across the full daily balance. Fuel and carbon signals were not strong enough to explain the move on their own. CEGH Austrian gas stood at €47.65/MWh, Greek gas at €45.5/MWh, and EUA Dec-26 was unchanged at €77.17/t.
Midsession pricing signals versus forward market moves
The Hungarian power forward curve moved softer rather than stronger over key maturities: Week 25 at €107.50/MWh , Week 26 at &Strong;€120/MWh , July 2026 at &Strong;€119/MWh , and Cal-26 at &Strong;€113/MWh . Coal and gas forwards also eased in line with that direction of change.
Batteries, generators and cross-border trading considerations on 15 June session data
A midday HUPX price of €4.9/MWh alongside an evening high of &Strong;€182.2/MWh created a spread consistent with battery dispatch economics when degradation, efficiency losses, balancing costs and grid fees are controlled.
Batteries able to charge during solar troughs and discharge into “H20-H22” scarcity windows can also reduce imbalance exposure for renewable portfolios and support PPA delivery profiles for industrial buyers facing volatile procurement costs.
The regional spread to Italy remained anchored by Italy’s price level of &Strong;€130.02/MWh . Serbia’s &Strong;€53.40/MWh discount continued to stand out as a low nominal-price reference point for supply sourcing into higher-priced zones.
The trading-day structure shown by HUPX hourly outcomes
The 15 June session data reflected a shift from block-based price logic toward hourly scarcity logic across SEE and Hungary trading references. Solar compressed prices during midday hours while wind variability influenced residual tightness later in the day.
The post-solar evening ramp emerged as the most expensive part of the trading day in HUPX outcomes, with scarcity values peaking after solar-heavy periods ended.